President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s recent visit to France has been a subject of discussions, not only on account of its economic benefits to Nigeria but the confidence reposed on him to reinforce the waning relationship between France and its former West African colonies.
For some economic and diplomatic reasons, some French-speaking members of the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) have cut bilateral relationship with France. Initiated by Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso; Chad and Senegal are following suit with demands for apology over 1944 massacre. In fact, Senegal has asked France to close its military bases in the country.
President Macron had expressed optimism that President Tinubu was capable of strengthening, not only the relationship between France and Nigeria, but also that of entire Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), including those shutting their doors against the country.
“We have confidence that you, Mr. President, will reinforce our relationship with Nigeria, and it will cover the West Coast region with ECOWAS playing the leading role. I will seek your leadership to work as partners of progress. You are the great leader of the great country in Africa,” Macron said to Tinubu.
But looking at the reality of the situation, the assignment to stabilize ECOWAS appeared a herculean task before President Tinubu, considering that there is already a crack among ECOWAS members. Except for the last-minute intervention, the region is at the brink of losing Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to a new bloc – Alliance for Sahel States, which was masterminded by military juntas that govern the countries.
The three countries have, on January 27, announced their intention to withdraw from membership of ECOWAS. Some of the justifications given for their exit include the fact that the regional bloc provided no support against the jihadists, which have inflicted serious mishaps in the Sahel; imposition of “illegal” sanctions that were inimical to their survival, and the allegation that ECOWAS has fallen under the influence of foreign governments.
However, whether their threat was real or not would be determined in two months’ time when their joint communication to ECOWAS will clock one year and thereafter, take effect.
For now, some member countries believed that being landlocked counties, pulling out of ECOWAS will have severe socio-economic implications on the three coup countries. But with the creation of a new bloc – Alliance for Sahel States and the printing of new passport without ECOWAS logo by Burkina Faso, hope of reintegration dims further.
With these internal challenges, reconciliatory responsibility vested on President Tinubu as the Chairman of ECOWAS Heads of State and Government by Macron becomes an issue of worries.
With the level of romance with Russia, the gulf between France and its former colonies is widening. A lawyer, activist and political analyst, Mr. Frank Frank Tietie, believed that the visit suggested that President Tinubu was capitalising on the strained relations between France and some of its former colonies.
“This is evident from the new trade deals that have been established between France and Nigeria. It is possible that opportunities, particularly in sectors like mining, might have been limited if France still had strong relations with Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali.
“Furthermore, President Tinubu’s inability to convince these three former French colonies to rejoin the ECOWAS bloc shows that his promises are more of a diplomatic façade”, he added.
For an Abuja-based global affairs analyst, Mr. Paul Ejime, tasking President Tinubu to reconcile grieving ECOWAS member states was like “looking for a lost item in the bag of the person that reported the loss.”
Ejime stated that as the Chairman of ECOWAS Heads of State and Government, Tinubu had earlier designated Senegalese President, Diomaye Faye, as a mediator charged with the responsibility of bringing the three renegade junta leaders and their countries back to ECOWAS but that was to no avail.
“Unless President Macron’s request is within this context, it is tantamount to the effort of a desperate France confused over the loss of influence over its former colonies.
“In line with ECOWAS regulation, the full impact of the Alliance of Sahel States’ decision to leave ECOWAS will begin to manifest from January 2025, a year after their notice to quit. There are potential consequences of humanitarian crisis, chaotic movement and displacements of people across borders.
“Already, citizens of the three landlocked countries are suffering the socio-economic hardships of near isolation of their countries. The situation can only get worse compounded by insecurity sweeping across the Sahel and the ECOWAS region.
“The junta leaders themselves might be making secret plans to return to ECOWAS because their separation is untenable and unsustainable.
“ECOWAS made some mistakes in the sanctions and general management of rising military incursions but having pulled back the punches, the decision by the three countries to quit the block was ill-informed.”
Ejime, therefore, urged France to recalibrate its African policy while ECOWAS engages in some critical house cleaning, especially on good governance and arresting corruption, political, constitutional and electoral or ballot box coups.
A Port Harcourt-based lawyer, Chief Festus Oguche in his reaction, felt that Mr. President takes great relish in going out of his way to please France by pandering to its interests in whatever that is of value and importance to it.
According to him, the new found romance between Nigeria and France showcases good levers of enthusiasm between the two leaders in such dimension that it was not completely odd for emotions and fantasies to run wild.
He also believed that if the President had in his capacity as the Chairman of ECOWAS handled the case of Niger Republic with the tact and diplomacy it deserved, one will clearly state that he could apply his position and influence to effect reconciliation.
“Unfortunately, he lost it totally by the manner of his reaction or rather the reaction of the ECOWAS Community immediately upon the take-over by the military junta in Niger Republic.
“He threatened them fire and brimstone unless they relinquished power and returned the country to a democratic order. Massive sanctions were imposed on the landlocked country, including blockage of their land and air spaces. Throughout what might be regarded as an ordeal by the people of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso stood by their sister country.
“I think that would be the basis for ascertaining the possibility or rather, the capacity of Tinubu to reconcile these countries with their former colonial master, and this points directly to his locus or position in the entire controversy of which I doubt if those countries would forget in a hurry.
“Then, consider also the fact that the three countries have exited the community as a veritable response to the difficult situations created by the regional body of which Tinubu is head and you will see that any move by Nigerian President in that direction would exacerbate or worsen the already fragile relations between France and those three other countries.”
The National Secretary, Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP), Chief Peter Ameh, said that if President Tinubu promised to help reconcile France and the three African countries that severed diplomatic ties with France, it was an empty diplomatic move.
“However, the question remains whether he has the power to do so. He made that promise to President Macron of France to reconcile what he knew would be absolutely impossible to achieve.
“Nigeria’s relationship with France is complex, as a country, it is almost not at talking terms with all those countries that have booted France and renounced her as their colonial master.
“Because of their perception, either rightly or wrongly, this has led to strained relationships between Nigeria and several countries that have severed ties with France.
“However, it is essential to acknowledge that the task of reconciling France with those countries is almost in my view, unachievable, given the complexities of Nigeria’s relationships with other African countries. As a seasoned politician, Tinubu should know that fulfilling this promise would be challenging, if not almost impossible.
“As the Chairman of ECOWAS, Tinubu has a significant role in regional diplomacy but his influence may be limited when it comes to countries that have already severed ties with France. The fact that he hasn’t been able to convince these countries to reconsider their exit from ECOWAS suggests that his powers of persuasion may have limitations.
“Moreover, the issues underlying the diplomatic rifts between France and these African countries are complex and deeply rooted. They involve historical grievances, economic interests and geopolitical tensions that cannot be easily resolved, no matter how genuine is the intention of the Nigerian President.”
He added: “In an attempt to act as a negotiator, it is essential to have realistic expectations about what he can achieve given the complexities of the issues involved.
“Resolving diplomatic rifts between France and these African countries will require a sustained effort from all parties involved – the French government and the leaders of the affected countries. It is a challenging task but one that is essential for promoting peace, stability and cooperation in the region,” Ameh said.
