NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK: A deepening jet fuel crunch linked to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is raising fears of higher airfares, reduced flight schedules, and broader disruptions to global travel in the coming weeks, particularly across Europe and Asia.
In an interview with the Associated Press, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that Europe may have only “maybe six weeks” of jet fuel supplies left, calling the situation the “largest energy crisis” facing the global economy.
Jet fuel, a refined kerosene-based product derived from crude oil, accounts for roughly 30 percent of airline operating costs, according to the International Air Transport Association. Prices have nearly doubled since the conflict began, and supply shortages could follow if disruptions persist.
“Every passing day that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, Europe is edging closer to supply shortages,” said Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media. “The Strait accounts for around 40 percent of Europe’s jet fuel imports, but no jet fuel has passed the Strait since the war broke out.”
Airlines have so far struck a cautious tone, acknowledging rising costs while attempting to reassure travelers. However, some carriers have already begun passing on higher fuel expenses through increased baggage fees, ticket prices, and fuel surcharges.
A limited number of flights have also been cut, and experts say broader operational changes, including altered routes and reduced scheduling flexibility, could follow if the crisis continues.
Jet fuel is produced at refineries alongside gasoline and diesel, then transported by pipeline and ship before being stored at airports. While supply shortages in a region do not necessarily halt flights entirely, they tend to push prices higher, particularly for airlines with limited reserves.
Larger carriers are generally better equipped to withstand such shocks due to stronger financial resources, said Jacques Rousseau, managing director at Clearview Energy Partners.
According to the IEA, several European countries now have less than 20 days of jet fuel coverage, a sharp drop from levels that have not fallen below 29 days since 2020. The agency warned that if supplies dip below 23 days, airports could begin facing physical shortages, leading to cancellations and reduced demand.
Asia-Pacific nations remain the most exposed to Middle Eastern fuel disruptions, followed by Europe. To offset shortages, the United States has ramped up exports, sending about 150,000 barrels per day of jet fuel to Europe in April, roughly six times the usual volume.
“I tell my kids … we’re not so much going to run out of supply,” Rousseau said. “It’s just going to cost more here, whereas in different parts of the world you could actually get to a point where there’s just no fuel.”
Globally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed between 10 million and 15 million barrels of oil per day from supply, according to Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James & Associates, raising concerns about refinery output and downstream fuel availability.
Even emergency stock releases may not offer immediate relief. “It could take until the end of the year to get all of those barrels onto the market,” Molchanov said.
For travelers, the impact may go beyond rising fares. Christopher Anderson of Cornell University said airlines are now rethinking entire network strategies, not just fuel pricing. “This is no longer just a fuel-price story. For airlines, it is now a network-planning story,” he said. “Higher fuel costs matter, but so do longer routings, reduced scheduling flexibility, and greater uncertainty about what demand will look like even a few weeks out.”
Airlines, including KLM and easyJet, say they are not yet facing immediate shortages, but both have acknowledged mounting cost pressures. KLM has already cut 160 flights next month, citing “rising kerosene costs,” while Lufthansa is accelerating the shutdown of its CityLine subsidiary and retiring older aircraft earlier than planned.
Meanwhile, U.S. carriers such as Delta Air Lines say they are monitoring the situation but do not expect near-term operational disruptions.
As the peak summer travel season approaches, analysts warn that prolonged disruption could lead to fewer low-cost tickets, more volatile schedules, and delayed booking patterns for passengers worldwide.
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