By Ridwanullah Sakariyah
An escalating internal crisis within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has raised fresh concerns about the party’s stability, as key actors battle for control ahead of the 2027 election cycle.
What began as internal disagreement has now grown into a full contest for power, with analysts warning that the outcome may determine whether the party remains a viable opposition force.
The ADC entered Nigeria’s political space with a clear message. It presented itself as an alternative to the dominance of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP). It promised reform, inclusion, and a break from the old order. Despite early interest, the party still struggled to build a strong structure across the country.
Its performance in recent elections showed limited reach. It attracted attention in some quarters, but it did not establish deep political roots. Party observers say that background is now shaping the current crisis, as a party with a weak foundation often finds it harder to withstand internal pressure.
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The present conflict did not start out of the blues. It has developed over time. Party insiders and analysts say it reflects a familiar struggle in Nigerian politics, control of party structure, control of tickets, and control of future direction. As more actors joined the party, tensions grew between old members and new entrants.
Interview with New Daily Prime
In separate interviews conducted by New Daily Prime, political analyst Anjorin Robert O. said the crisis is driven by personal interest rather than ideology.
He said, “Well, anybody who has a modicum of sense in their head knows that this current struggle is not about ideology. It is basically an issue of personal interest. Personal interest is at the centre of everything, because the game being played now shows the footprints of personal interest, elements of selfishness and greed.”
His position reflects a wider trend in Nigerian politics. Political parties often split over access and advantage rather than policy differences.
Speaking on crisis shift, Anjorin explained that internal disputes become dangerous when early signs are ignored.
He said, “An internal disagreement can become a full institutional crisis when parties fail to take into consideration certain factors… things that might be ignored as little can eventually become big things.”
He traced part of the problem to the way alliances were formed within the party.
He said, “They failed to recognise that the people they are dealing with seem to be more vast… you ended up creating certain disgruntled elements… and that eventually led to something like this.”
His comments suggest that some actors entered the party without fully understanding its internal dynamics. New entrants pushed for influence, while older members felt sidelined. That tension has now moved into the open.
Attention has also shifted to the role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which often determines the recognised leadership in party disputes.
Responding to New Daily Prime regarding the role of INEC in situations like this, Anjorin stressed the need for neutrality.
He said, “It really matters that INEC plays the role it is supposed to play by being an entirely neutral body… The moment they choose to start taking sides… they have already made themselves a major factor of conflict.”
He warned that any perceived bias could deepen the crisis rather than resolve it.
As the next election approaches, internal competition is expected to increase. Party primaries often bring out the strongest rivalries, as aspirants seek tickets and influence.
Anjorin described the situation in direct terms, “…it is just a battle of personal interests… ensuring that they do not understand themselves,” he said.
He added, “There is still going to be that point where personal ambitions will come into the picture… by the time they are to go for their primaries, definitely there is going to be a very strong storm… this is the storm before the storm.”
That warning suggests that the current conflict may not be the peak of the crisis. More intense struggles may lie ahead if key actors fail to reach a compromise.
When asked if the party could survive its current internal battle, Anjorin told New Daily Prime that he believes the party still has a chance to recover.
He said, “Fortunately, even with the current crisis, ADC seems to be gathering more inflows than outflows… I still believe they are still going to be a very strong alternative for Nigerians.”
He added, “I believe this is a temporary storm… they will overcome.”
A second analyst, Professor Sesan Fabamise, offered a different perspective when he spoke with New Daily Prime. He linked the crisis to broader political strategy and long-term planning.
“The truth of the matter is, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a great political strategist… if the end he foresees… is likely to be unfavourable… he does everything to change the course.”
Turning to the ADC, he argued that the current crisis has roots in earlier decisions.
He said, “The ADC promoters appear to be naive… any discerning politician would have anticipated the dilemma… I would have suggested the alliance forming a political party of its own rather than inheriting the assets and liabilities.”
According to him, the decision to build on an existing party structure came with risks. Old tensions and unresolved issues were carried into the new arrangement.
Still, he believes the actors involved may respond in the coming weeks.
He said, “My candid opinion is that… they must have an answer… we only need to wait for them to respond to the bombshell with a ballistic missile.”
He added, “If they have no response… then they need to go to Tinubu Political Academy for tutorial on politics.”
These views present two possible outcomes. One suggests the crisis will pass. The other points to a deeper test of political strength and strategy.
Political history in Nigeria offers some context. Both the APC and PDP have also faced serious internal crises in the past. They, however, survived largely because they had strong structures, access to resources, and control of power. The ADC has not yet enjoyed such advantages.
Observers say a key question is whether a party without strong institutional backing can survive prolonged internal conflict.
Beyond the party itself, the implications are wider. Nigeria’s political space is already dominated by two major parties. If the ADC weakens further, the range of strong alternatives available to voters may shrink.
For now, the party remains under pressure. Internal divisions continue to shape its direction, while external observers watch closely.
The outcome of this crisis may not only define the future of the ADC. It may also influence the balance of political competition in the country as the next election approaches.
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