Is the US naval blockade on Iran working?

The United States has vowed to blockade Iran’s ships until the country makes a deal to end their war. But is the blockade working?

Analysts and ship-tracking data paint a complicated picture. Shifting objectives and shadowy activity by vessels making the success of the US operation hard to measure.

“There’s been confusion over the scope and the parameters of the blockade because of conflicting information given by the US administration and some delays in when information has been released,” Bridget Diakun, an analyst at shipping journal Lloyd’s List Intelligence, told AFP.

Here are facts about the military standoff over shipping access to the Strait of Hormuz, based on data from tracking sources including Kpler and its MarineTraffic platform, and Bloomberg.

Where is the blockade?

After the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, Iranian forces effectively closed the strait by targeting vessels trying to cross between its south-eastern coast and the northern tip of Oman.

After later peace talks failed during a ceasefire, US forces launched a counter-blockade on April 13. The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, said the US blockade would be enforced further east, at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman.

What are its terms?

Launching the operation, US Central Command said its blockade applied to ships of all nations going to or from Iranian ports.

The US Navy later said it would also block ships suspected of carrying “contraband” including oil, weapons and nuclear material linked to Iran — regardless of their location.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence on Wednesday quoted an unnamed US defence official as saying that the force was now gauging the blockade’s success on how badly it damaged Iran’s trade, not on how many rogue vessels crossed the line.