BEIRUT/JERUSALEM/LONDON – Three Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying six million barrels of crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on June 18, hours after US President Donald Trump signed a deal with Iran to end the war that has disrupted global energy supplies.
But in Lebanon, where more than a million people are displaced by the fighting, Israeli forces launched fresh airstrikes on the morning of June 18, raising doubt about how far Trump will go to force his wartime allies to halt an offensive he has now pledged to end.
Trump signed the so-called memorandum of understanding at the Palace of Versailles near Paris on the evening of June 17, at the end of a Group of Seven summit, bringing it into effect two days earlier than previously expected.
He was flanked by world and business leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Blackstone Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman, who applauded as he did so.
The US-Iranian memorandum starts the clock on a 60-day negotiation period to reach a final settlement to the war, which Trump launched in February alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
US Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s lead negotiator, are scheduled to meet in Switzerland on June 19 for a ceremony to mark the signing and start a further round of negotiations to permanently end the war.
Under the text of the interim deal, Washington commits to immediately waive oil sanctions crippling Iran’s economy.
And, once a final agreement is reached on Iran’s nuclear programme, the United States will also facilitate the release of a US$300 billion reconstruction fund supported by regional nations, the deal says.
US officials also said Iran will dilute its enriched uranium stocks, possibly by “down-blending on site” under the supervision of the UN watchdog.
Iran’s ballistic missile programme was not mentioned in the agreement, despite Israel’s longstanding push for its dismantling.
Macron hailed the deal “which allows for peace, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, and 60 days to conclude an agreement on nuclear, ballistic, and regional activities”.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also signed the agreement, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said, adding that “now it is time to test the implementation of the agreement”.
There has been some criticism from hardliners within Iran, where the conflict was described as an “imposed war” and compared to the 1980-1988 conflict with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
But Ghalibaf insisted the deal represented a US “failure”, while Pezeshkian called it “historic”.
Also, many Iran hawks in the US, as well as Israel, have said that the agreement concedes far too much to the Islamic Republic.
They say it looks no better than the Obama administration’s 2015 nuclear deal that the US leader calls the “worst deal ever.”
US Senator Bill Cassidy from Trump’s Republican Party described it as the “worst foreign policy blunder in decades”.
“Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works,” he said.
But Trump has lashed out at critics on June 18, calling those who accused him of offering concessions to end the war “fools”, ahead of negotiations in Switzerland.
“These fools, who think I haven’t been tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market Just Hit A RECORD HIGH, and Oil prices are ‘tumbling’ down, are either jealous, bad people, or stupid,” Trump posted on social media hours after signing the deal.
Though shippers say it will still take time for transit across the strait to reach pre-war levels, with a need yet to ensure safe access and clear mines, there were immediate signs of an impact.
Ships which once might have concealed their positions by switching off their transponders were now broadcasting their locations, poised to transit the strait.
But many shipping and oil executives have said they need more clarity, including on whether the strait is clear of mines and whether they need to seek any kind of permission from Iran before sailing through.
There is also confusion over whether Iran will allow ships free passage. Iranian media has said that might happen only for two months, before Tehran starts charging navigation fees.
The US, Europe and Gulf Arab states have balked at the idea of Iran charging a toll for what’s widely considered international waters.
Benchmark Brent crude futures prices fell by another 2 per cent to below US$78 a barrel, lowest since the shooting began. Still, oil remains roughly 30 per cent higher for the year.
But Israel, which launched an invasion in March and has since seized a large swathe of southern Lebanon in its pursuit of Hezbollah militants who opened fire across the border in support of Iran, was excluded from the negotiations.
Iran has always said any peace deal must also cover Lebanon. In an apparent major concession to Iran, the memorandum signed by Trump explicitly calls for the “permanent termination” of the war in Lebanon and for its “territorial integrity and sovereignty” to be ensured.
With Lebanon among the peace effort’s most delicate issues, Trump in recent days has become openly critical of his ally’s operations there, accusing Israel of unnecessarily destroying entire buildings to hit Hezbollah fighters.
Two Israeli officials, including a senior official close to Netanyahu, told Reuters on June 18 that Israel was holding negotiations with the United States as it seeks to continue its deployment of troops in southern Lebanon.
While fighting in Lebanon tamped down at the start of this week when Trump first announced the deal had been reached, it has ticked up again over the past few days, and continued on the morning of June 18 after Trump’s signature.
Lebanese state media reported air strikes and artillery fire hitting towns in the south, killing at least one person in a car. Reuters reporters heard an Israeli drone flying low over Beirut and its southern suburbs.
“Iran and the Americans are done. Fine. In Lebanon it’s not over yet,” said Mohammed Doghman, a man displaced from the southern city of Nabatieh to Beirut, who was sitting outside his tent on June 18, squinting hard at his phone to read the news.
“They should give us a final answer: has the war ended for good, or will we return to it again?”
The senior Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks, told Reuters that Israel was “conducting stubborn negotiation”” with Washington over continuing its deployment of troops in southern Lebanon.
Israel would not back down on its position, including that it be permitted to keep troops deployed in what it describes as a buffer zone, south of the Litani River that runs across southern Lebanon.
The second Israeli official told Reuters that the outcome of the talks would ultimately depend on whether Trump “decides to force the issue” by threatening repercussions if Israel does not abide by the interim Iran pact’s terms.
Netanyahu’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Israel’s longest serving prime minister has boasted for years of a particularly close relationship with Trump, which yielded major shifts in US policy in Israel’s favour during the Republican president’s first term, and ultimately the joint decision to launch the war on Iran in 2026.
But Trump’s apparent shift over Lebanon has suddenly given rise to one of the biggest rifts in US-Israeli relations in decades. The US memorandum of understanding with Iran has largely been lamented in Israel across the political spectrum.
“Soon, Israel may be forced to choose: Either keep up the military pressure and lose Trump’s diplomatic support, or stay on his good side — but only by ending, or scaling back, the conflict that many see as the country’s most urgent fight,” the Times of Israel wrote on June 18. REUTERS, BLOOMBERG, AFP
