Israeli opposition figures have already begun making that case.
“Israeli citizens are waking up to an agreement between the United States and Iran made over Israel’s head,” Yair Golan, leader of Israel’s Democrats Party, wrote on X.
“This is the culmination of long years of failure,” he said, arguing that Netanyahu had sold Israelis “a false image of security”.
Another opposition leader, Yair Lapid, also accused Netanyahu of losing control of events in Lebanon, citing the Trump administration’s agreement with Iran, which includes a new Israel-Hezbollah truce. “There has never, ever, been a more absolute failure than Netanyahu’s diplomatic failure on the Iranian front,” he said.
The criticism comes as the costs of Israel’s regional conflicts continue to mount.
Most recently, the Israeli military announced the deaths of four soldiers, including a battalion commander, after a Hezbollah attack on Israeli tanks in southern Lebanon, where Israeli military offensives have caused widespread destruction.
If Netanyahu does not react to growing delicate internal and external realities against his policies, “his political future would certainly change drastically,” Zaccara tells TRT World.
Falk also sees Netanyahu’s prospects of remaining in power diminishing ahead of the October election, though he cautions that considerable uncertainty remains.
“It currently seems that many Israelis are highly critical of Israel for miscalculating, as did Trump and the US, the difficulties of relying on military dominance to secure a favorable outcome from such a resolute adversary with a variety of measures to counteract its military vulnerability,” Falk tells TRT World.
“This remains the unlearned lesson of the Vietnam War in which the US had total military dominance and yet lost the war.”
Despite this, Falk expects Netanyahu’s government to continue pursuing military pressure through selective strikes in Lebanon and possibly against Iran in an effort “to undermine the durability of the agreement”.
“This again would likely turn out to be a disastrous tactic, even if it had the endorsement of Trump, and might be the end of Netanyahu as a so-called credible Israeli leader.”
In a recent statement, Trump offered conditional support for Netanyahu ahead of the upcoming election.
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“I’ll have to look at who’s running, but I like Bibi (Netanyahu) very much. I would be most likely to endorse him,” Trump said during an interview with KAN News, an Israeli broadcaster.
“But I need to see who is running. I have a good relationship with Bibi, but he needs to be more rational. I am willing to meet with him. He’s doing a very good job; he’s got to be a little bit more rational,” added Trump.
If the US-Iran deal holds
Experts say the US-Iran agreement could further complicate Netanyahu’s reelection prospects.
The deal not only offers Iran sanction relief and a reported $300 billion investment fund but also leaves the future of Iran’s nuclear programme to further negotiations – an outcome likely to unsettle the Israeli political establishment.
“If the deal holds, the election will likely become a referendum on Netanyahu’s Iran strategy. Hardliners may accuse him of failing to stop Trump, while more pragmatic voters may ask why Israel remained locked in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran without a decisive result,” Zaccara says.
A recent poll shows that only 11 percent of Israelis believe their country won war on Iran. Another survey showed that Netanyahu’s coalition bloc is not favoured to win a majority in Knesset.
“The deal does not automatically end Netanyahu’s chances, but it deprives him of the clear victory narrative he needs before an election. Paradoxically, the continuity of the war provided him this victory narrative, but peace would deprive him of that.”
Facing growing criticism, Netanyahu has sought to limit the political fallout from the US-Iran agreement, attempting to navigate between hardliners’ maximalist demands and the need to prevent further deterioration of his relationship with the Trump administration.
According to Falk, Netanyahu will try to do his best “minimising the strain surrounding the agreement as nothing more than a family squabble”.
A recent statement by the Israeli leader appeared to reflect that approach.
“The struggle is not yet over, and further challenges lie ahead. They require calm judgement, steadfast defence of Israel’s security interests, and at the same time the preservation of our vital relationship with our American friends, who stood shoulder to shoulder with us in this fight — a partnership we deeply appreciate,” it said.
Falk, however, is sceptical that Netanyahu will be able to preserve his relationship with Trump indefinitely, warning that a breakdown could further weaken his political position.
“This posture might not withstand scrutiny, as the agreement, if it holds, could leave Iran as a stronger political force in the region and contribute to a broader shift against Israel across the Arab world,” Falk says.
“Alternatively, Iran might be greeted by a new leadership in Tel Aviv that seeks normalisation of relations with Tehran. Time will tell.”
