One factor working in his favour is the support of Paloma Valencia, the third-place candidate from Colombia’s traditional conservative camp and an ally of former president Alvaro Uribe.
Valencia has signalled that she will back de la Espriella in the runoff, potentially bringing with her a substantial share of the 7 percent vote she secured in the first round. Given that de la Espriella won 43 percent of the vote, that endorsement could prove significant.
“De la Espriella will probably win because the Valencia voters will mostly go to him,” James E. Mahon Jr, an expert on Latin American politics, tells TRT World.
If Cepeda loses, “Petro deserves some blame for dropping his initial moderate approach,” he says.
“He looks to me like trouble for Colombian democracy. He’s a thin-skinned guy who puts his name on everything and wants to rule with an iron fist. I predict that he will not allow himself to be voted out.”
Rodriguez, however, cautions against assuming that the first-round result will determine the outcome of the runoff.
“The first round provides an important advantage, but it does not automatically determine the final outcome. Colombia remains a highly fragmented society with a volatile electorate,” he says.
Why did the far-right surge?
According to analysts, a combination of factors, including an aggressive social media strategy, the use of AI-driven campaign tools, a carefully cultivated tough-on-crime image, and a broader rightward shift across the Americas, helped fuel de la Espriella’s rise in the polls.
Much of that success can be attributed to his strong presence across platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and TikTok, which significantly boosted his visibility among voters, says Galindo, the Bogota-based political analyst.
But Galindo argues that the campaign’s focus was less about policy and more about crafting a relatable public persona.
He describes de la Espriella’s image as chabacano — a Spanish term that roughly translates as “brash” or “tacky” but, in this context, refers to a politician who projects himself as charismatic, approachable and entertaining.
According to Galindo, the image centres on gestures that resonate with ordinary voters: dancing in public, dressing in a distinctive style, interacting warmly with crowds, and kissing babies on the campaign trail. The aim is not necessarily to communicate policy proposals but to forge an emotional connection with voters.
At 43, de la Espriella has embraced a style reminiscent of other populist figures across the Americas, from Donald Trump to Argentina’s Javier Milei, both of whom built loyal followings by combining media savvy with larger-than-life personalities.
Galindo says his Chabacano showmanship has helped transform him from a political outsider into a major electoral force.
“He comes across as dynamic, funny, and charismatic; many people see themselves reflected in that desire to be like him. There is a feeling that if he can be that way, so can Colombia,” Galindo tells TRT World.
This trend reflects a broader shift in contemporary politics, where electoral battles are increasingly driven by emotions rather than policy platforms.
“The objective is no longer persuasion through rational argument but the shaping of perceptions, the production of fear, the amplification of frustrations and the steering of collective behaviour through sophisticated mechanisms of symbolic manipulation,” Rodriguez says.
Like Trump, de la Espriella has frequently targeted left-wing groups, portraying them as communists and using that rhetoric to galvanise conservative voters.
Although he is not known for being particularly religious, his message has also resonated with segments of Colombia’s Christian community.
Galindo says de la Espriella has also benefited from support from establishment conservatives who fear another left-wing presidency following Gustavo Petro’s term. As a result, many traditional conservative voters have rallied behind the far-right candidate.
Experts also point to factors beyond campaign strategy and media outreach. De la Espriella’s rise has coincided with a broader surge in right-wing populism across the Americas, from the United States to Argentina, Chile and Bolivia, as well as with growing US interest in political developments across the region.
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Martin Alejandro Martinelli, a historian and sociologist who heads the Geohistorical Observatory at Argentina’s National University of Lujan, argues that recent right-wing victories in countries such as Argentina and Chile cannot be viewed in isolation from broader geopolitical dynamics and their close alignment with Washington.
There is “a full-blown political struggle between leftist and far-right movements” across the Americas, Martinelli tells TRT World.
With far-right leaders winning and consolidating power across Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, the focus is now turning to Colombia, Brazil and Mexico, three of Latin America’s most politically significant countries, he says.
“The far-right movement is gaining momentum, but we must see if this phenomenon extends to Colombia, Brazil and Mexico,” he adds.
Other experts agree with Martinelli on the impact of the shifting political mood in Latin America and US influence on Colombia’s first round.
“Latin America is currently experiencing a renewed expansion of ultra-conservative, neoliberal and authoritarian currents that have successfully combined narratives of security, anti-politics, exclusionary nationalism and opposition to social justice agendas,” Rodriguez tells TRT World.
“From Argentina to Ecuador, and across various political sectors in Peru and elsewhere, political, economic and media networks aligned with US geopolitical interests have emerged with the objective of containing sovereign, redistributive and regional integration projects.”
