The United States Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has warned that the current Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could match the scale of the devastating 2014 West Africa crisis unless urgent action is taken.
The 2014 outbreak of the virus remains the deadliest on record, resulting in more than 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths across the region.
Speaking during a press briefing, the Director of the CDC’s Centre for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, Jason Asher, stated that new mathematical models indicate a similar disaster is highly likely if the virus is left unchecked.
“That scale is possible,” Asher warned. He quickly emphasised that the models were “not a forecast” but “a planning tool” designed to “support action, not to generate alarm.”
The agency’s latest reports show that if patient isolation remains poor, there is a 65 percent chance that infection numbers will exceed 20,000 within the next three months. The CDC stated that the worst outcomes could be avoided if “a larger proportion of patients were identified, isolated, and treated.”
However, the agency noted that “the public health response to control this outbreak will likely need to be of similar magnitude to the response for the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak.”
The CDC manager for the Ebola response, Satish Pillai, raised concerns that “the total number of individuals that are infected and requiring isolation remains unclear.” He added that current field observations show that isolation levels are unfortunately on the lower, more dangerous end.
The outbreak was officially declared on May 15, 2026, in the northeastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Health officials believe that the rare Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus had already been spreading silently for some time before it was detected.
According to the latest data from the World Health Organisation (WHO), the DRC has recorded 381 confirmed cases and 64 deaths, with the Ituri province serving as the epicentre of the crisis. Uganda has reported 16 confirmed cases and one death.
