Entire regions of the country fell beyond effective state control, while civilians often found themselves caught between rival armed factions competing for territory and influence.
Although the landmark 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC formally ended Latin America’s longest-running insurgency, violence did not disappear.
Abraham believes that de la Espriella’s victory represents a significant setback for the implementation of this fragile accord.
“Abelardo de la Espriella has repeatedly expressed scepticism towards the 2016 Peace Accord and has aligned himself with sectors of the Colombian right that favour a more militarised approach to security,” he says.
De la Espriella pledges to combat crime by ending dialogue with armed groups and building El Salvador-style mega-prisons to address public fears of renewed conflict.
Abraham says the rhetoric by de la Espriella — the self-described ‘El Tigre’ — towards marginalised groups has raised concerns about political violence in a country where social and political leaders are being assassinated at an alarming rate.
TRT World previously spoke to first-round voters, many of whom identified security as their defining issue.
It remains to be seen whether de la Espriella’s approach will yield positive results.
Related
Generating economic investment
During his campaign, de la Espriella presented himself as a pro-business figure who argued that Colombia’s economy needed faster growth, greater investor confidence and a stronger private sector after years of sluggish expansion and fiscal pressures.
He pledged to reduce regulatory burdens on businesses, encourage domestic and foreign investment, and expand support for sectors such as energy, mining, agriculture and infrastructure, which he said could generate jobs and boost government revenues.
He also criticised aspects of Petro’s economic agenda, particularly policies that he said had created uncertainty among investors.
De la Espriella’s support for expanding extractive industries could very well generate economic investment across many sectors. However, this is a part where the economy and security intertwine.
The president-elect frequently linked economic recovery to his broader law-and-order platform, saying that defeating criminal organisations and reasserting state authority in conflict-ridden regions would be essential to unlocking investment and development.
Abraham believes this will be a tough and complex challenge for the upcoming administration, given the fact that many regions with extractive enterprises already contain strong concentrations of armed actors.
“More generally, Colombia continues to face a fragmented post-accord landscape in which multiple armed organisations exercise varying degrees of control over local economies and territories,” says Abraham.
Ties with US, Latin American countries
In recent years, there has been a wave of right-wing victories across many Latin American countries, including Chile, Argentina and others, with many leaders influenced by US President Trump and his approach to multiple issues.
And de la Espriella aligned himself with Trump during his campaign, saying in one of his rallies, “I defend the same values as Trump.”
After the vote counting, Trump congratulated de la Espriella, who holds dual Colombian and US citizenship, writing in a social media post that, “It was my Great Honor to endorse him, and I look forward to working together to build a powerful relationship between Colombia and the United States of America, which will bring new levels of Greatness for both of our Countries!”
Experts say this could only suggest that Colombia’s ties with the US and other Latin American countries are likely to strengthen, particularly on issues related to security cooperation, investment, counternarcotics policy, and regional diplomacy.
“Regionally, Colombia could move closer to governments that have adopted more conservative political agendas and seek stronger ties with the United States. This would likely alter Colombia’s role within Latin America’s increasingly polarised political landscape,” says Abraham of the Gonzaga University.
US regional interests, driven by migration and drug trafficking, may prompt Washington to seek alignment with the incoming government, according to Dickinson of the Crisis Group, who notes that De la Espriella will have to balance this with Colombia’s domestic considerations.
“This is going to be quite the balancing act in terms of using the US support and resources and political alignment to also ensure that Colombia’s own domestic politics, domestic considerations and the needs in terms of protecting communities affected by conflict are taken into account,” she notes.
