by Murad Abdo
SANAA, July 21 (Xinhua) — The declaration by Yemen’s Houthi group of a maritime ban on Saudi shipping on Monday has raised fresh concerns over the security of the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest trade corridors.
The move followed a sharp escalation triggered last week by a dispute over Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport. Yemen’s internationally recognized government struck the airport’s runway to prevent an Iranian aircraft carrying a senior Houthi delegation, which was returning from funeral ceremonies for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, from landing. The Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia and launched missiles and drones toward the kingdom, warning that key Saudi oil facilities could become targets.
Although the practical impact of the maritime ban remains uncertain, it has reignited questions over Red Sea shipping security, Saudi energy exports, and whether the latest crisis could test the rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran.
RED SEA SHIPPING IN FOCUS
Whether the Houthis can enforce the declaration remains uncertain, but the announcement has renewed attention on the strategic importance of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export routes.
Riyadh is relying on its East-West Pipeline, which extends from the eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, to export crude oil, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, where navigation has been largely halted due to the Iran-U.S. conflict.
Some 75 percent of Saudi Arabia’s daily crude exports have been diverted to Yanbu, according to maritime data firm Kpler.
“If the Red Sea itself becomes an arena of sustained confrontation, the strategic value of that alternative route will inevitably decline,” said Khalil Alomary, chairman of the Yemeni European Forum.
“The issue extends beyond Saudi Arabia’s oil exports,” Alomary said, warning that prolonged instability could increase shipping costs, disrupt global supply chains, and place additional upward pressure on energy markets.
TIED TO BROADER LANDSCAPE
Beyond maritime security, analysts said the Houthi escalation should be viewed within the wider regional landscape, as Iran has signalled previously that it could ask its Houthi allies to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, if Washington escalates its attacks on Tehran.
Abdullah Daubalah, a Yemeni political analyst, said the timing cannot be separated from the broader U.S.-Iran confrontation.
“Applying pressure on Saudi energy exports also increases pressure on global energy markets at a time when Iran itself faces mounting economic and military challenges (from the United States),” Daubalah said.
Offering a contrasting view, Hussain al-Bukhaiti, a Sanaa-based political analyst, rejected the notion that the Houthi decision was driven by Tehran, saying it stemmed from the group’s own conflict with Saudi Arabia.
Analysts also noted that the latest development could become another test of the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which restored relations in 2023 through Chinese mediation.
“The restoration of (Saudi-Iran) diplomatic relations … largely eased tensions across the region,” Alomary said. “But any sustained escalation against Saudi interests would place those understandings under significant strain.”
NO ALL-OUT WAR, BUT RISKS RISE
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said Monday night that it would take necessary measures to protect its commercial vessels in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and respond firmly to any Houthi threats.
Despite the confrontational rhetoric, experts said neither side appears to be seeking an all-out war, though the margin for miscalculation is narrowing.
“Saudi Arabia has considerably more to lose from a broader conflict than the Houthis,” said Aden-based political analyst Muqbil Naji.
“Riyadh’s response over the past week suggests it remains focused on containing the crisis rather than expanding it. Even after missile attacks on its territory, it has shown restraint and continued to leave the door open for political solutions,” Naji said.
The Houthis appear intent on steadily raising the cost of confrontation, and the group’s “immediate objective is to strengthen leverage rather than seek a decisive military outcome,” he added.
“Whether that balance holds will determine if the current crisis remains a limited confrontation or develops into a broader regional security challenge,” the analyst said.
