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The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said that the economic impact of the new tariffs imposed on Nigeria is unlikely to be significant because the country’s exports to the United States are heavily concentrated in crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the U.S. adding that these products have been exempted from the tariff measures, leaving the bulk of Nigeria’s exports unaffected.
Quoting Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the centre, said that total exports stood at approximately ₦21.6 trillion, of which exports to the United States accounted for only 5.56%, adding that by comparison, India accounted for 13.09%, France 9.29%, the Netherlands 9.22%, and Spain 7.68%.
“The United States ranked only the fifth-largest destination for Nigerian exports during the quarter,” it said.
CPPE stated that these trade patterns significantly moderate Nigeria’s exposure to the new tariff regime, arguing that while some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, may experience reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market, the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts and macroeconomic performance is expected to be modest.
“This is essentially a question of materiality. The products affected account for only a small proportion of Nigeria’s total exports, while the dominant export category to the U.S. remains outside the scope of the tariffs” it posited.
However, the centre argued that the development reflects a broader structural shift in global trade policy, adding that it reinforces the trend towards greater protectionism, industrial policy and strategic use of trade instruments to advance domestic economic objectives.
It said that the evolving environment calls for a stronger emphasis on export diversification, enhanced manufacturing competitiveness, increased domestic value addition and deeper regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
CPPE called on Nigeria to sustain efforts to strengthen labour standards, improve supply chain transparency and engage proactively with the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to seek clarity on the implementation of the new measures and minimise any adverse effects on affected exporters.
According to the centre, while the new U.S. tariffs have generated concern, their direct economic implications for Nigeria should not be overstated, adding that the greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment.
