ADEMU IDAKWO writes about today’s gubernatorial election in Osun State and its implications for the country’s 2027 general election
As 2,339,233 registered voters prepare to head to 3,763 polling units across Osun State to elect a governor for another four-year term today, the governorship election is attracting attention far beyond the state, emerging as the last major off-cycle poll before the 2027 general election.
The election, with 14 candidates and political parties on the ballot, will also test the readiness of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). 3,763 Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices have been deployed, with another 664 backup devices prepared, bringing the total number of BVAS devices ready for the election to 4,427.
Beyond the battle for the Bola Ige House in Osogbo, today’s election is a critical test of Nigeria’s electoral institutions, including INEC’s logistics, BVAS performance, security, vote-buying, result transmission, and the transparency of the collation process.
The outcome will shape political calculations in the state. Still, the process itself could yield more consequential lessons for 2027, when the country will face a much larger and more politically charged election.
Osun State has repeatedly shown that political fortunes can shift dramatically from one election cycle to the next. The state has seen close contests, reversals of fortune and intense competition between the major political parties.
The 2018 contest, which went into a rerun before the APC eventually prevailed, and the 2022 election, in which Ademola Adeleke defeated the incumbent APC candidate, Gboyega Oyetola, demonstrated how quickly political momentum can shift when voter preferences, party organisation, alliances and local political dynamics converge.
That record makes today’s contest particularly important for the parties already positioning themselves for 2027.
A victory could strengthen a party’s claim to political momentum, whereas a defeat could prompt fresh questions about its leadership, organisation and ability to forge effective alliances.
Yet the Osun experience also offers a warning against reading a state election as a direct forecast of the national contest, because local political structures and personalities can produce outcomes that do not necessarily translate to the wider Nigerian electorate.
Governor Adeleke, seeking another term on the platform of the Accord Party, is facing the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, as the final days of the campaign have seen significant political realignments.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate, Adedamola Adebayo, popularly known as FRYO, withdrew from the race and endorsed Adeleke following consultations with political stakeholders.
Adebayo said the decision was not made in haste, insisting that the wider interests of Osun State were more important than personal ambition.
The development came after the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, Adesina Adeyemi-Doro, also stepped down and declared support for Oyebamiji of the APC.
The two withdrawals have altered the political calculations in the final stretch of the contest and offered a glimpse of the fluid alliances that could become more pronounced as parties position themselves for 2027.
For Adeleke, victory would consolidate his position in the state following his move from the PDP to Accord. For the APC, winning the state would mark a major political recovery after Adeleke defeated Oyetola in the 2022 election.
These realignments are significant beyond the immediate contest, as they offer an early indication of how political blocs may negotiate alliances, endorsements and strategic withdrawals as the 2027 contest approaches.
But the significance of the election extends beyond the two principal contenders.
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar has thrown his weight behind the African Democratic Congress, ADC, in the Osun contest as part of the wider opposition realignment ahead of 2027. Addressing supporters, Atiku urged voters to support the party, saying, “I believe you will not regret voting ADC in the forthcoming elections.”
Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, has also become involved in the political debate surrounding the poll, particularly following the controversy generated by remarks attributed to Senator Francis Fadahunsi.
