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The changing nature of Rivers State’s voting behaviour can be seen clearly by comparing the presidential elections of 2019 and 2023.
In the 2019 presidential election, Rivers State overwhelmingly voted for Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, against President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress, APC.
The final statewide result recorded Atiku Abubakar with 473,971 votes against Buhari’s 150,710 votes. Rivers recorded 678,167 accredited voters, 666,585 votes cast, 642,165 valid votes and 24,420 rejected votes. Atiku therefore won Rivers State by a margin of more than 323,000 votes. The official INEC 2019 presidential-election portal and the contemporaneous final state collation figures confirm the statewide outcome.
Available contemporaneous reports of LGA-level collation in Rivers State showed the enormous strength of the PDP in several Local Government Areas.
In Oyigbo Local Government Area, Atiku polled 16,102 votes against Buhari’s 3,520 votes. In Asari-Toru, however, Buhari won with 18,180 votes against Atiku’s 3,175 votes, making the LGA one of the early APC strongholds in the state.
In Omuma, Atiku polled 15,322 votes against Buhari’s 2,494 votes. In Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, popularly known as ONELGA, Atiku recorded 28,536 votes against Buhari’s 10,996 votes.
In Obio/Akpor, one of the most politically strategic Local Government Areas in Rivers State, Atiku recorded 69,981 votes against Buhari’s 6,875 votes in the reported LGA collation figures.
In Eleme, Atiku polled 8,464 votes against Buhari’s 2,412 votes. In Gokana, Atiku scored 10,276 votes against Buhari’s 9,328 votes.
In Andoni, Atiku polled 72,330 votes against Buhari’s 10,766 votes. In Etche, the PDP candidate secured 11,135 votes against Buhari’s 7,163 votes.
In Khana, Atiku recorded one of the most dominant results among the early LGA figures, polling 89,843 votes against Buhari’s 5,329 votes. These LGA-level figures were reported from the Rivers State INEC collation process during the 2019 presidential election.
The 2019 election therefore demonstrated the overwhelming political strength of the PDP establishment in Rivers State at the time.
But four years later, the political map changed dramatically.
The 2023 presidential election in Rivers State produced one of the most significant realignments in the state’s modern electoral history.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC polled major figures across several Local Government Areas, while Atiku Abubakar and the PDP suffered significant setbacks.
The LGA-by-LGA comparison between Tinubu and Atiku in the 2023 presidential election was as follows:
Abua/Odual recorded 5,653 votes for Tinubu and 4,685 for Atiku. Ahoada East recorded 8,066 votes for Tinubu and 2,358 for Atiku. Ahoada West recorded 3,443 votes for Tinubu and 2,582 for Atiku. Akuku-Toru recorded 3,182 votes for Tinubu and 3,131 for Atiku.
Andoni recorded 3,306 votes for Tinubu and 4,614 for Atiku. Asari-Toru recorded 14,483 votes for Tinubu and 4,476 for Atiku. Bonny recorded 2,708 votes for Tinubu and 2,406 for Atiku.
Degema recorded 2,375 votes for Tinubu and 3,108 for Atiku. Eleme recorded 8,368 votes for Tinubu and 2,391 for Atiku. Emohua recorded 9,145 votes for Tinubu and 5,242 for Atiku.
Etche recorded 8,368 votes for Tinubu and 5,919 for Atiku. Gokana recorded 10,122 votes for Tinubu and 8,484 for Atiku.
Ikwerre recorded 9,609 votes for Tinubu and 4,869 for Atiku. Khana recorded 7,649 votes for Tinubu and 5,483 for Atiku.
Obio/Akpor produced the most politically dramatic figure, with Tinubu polling 80,239 votes against Atiku’s 368 votes. Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni recorded 6,057 votes for Tinubu and 4,099 for Atiku. Ogu/Bolo recorded 2,428 votes for Tinubu and 3,187 for Atiku.
Okrika recorded 2,729 votes for Tinubu and 8,476 for Atiku. Omuma recorded 6,328 votes for Tinubu and 1,293 for Atiku. Opobo/Nkoro recorded 5,701 votes for Tinubu and 1,542 for Atiku.
Oyigbo recorded 16,630 votes for Tinubu and 1,046 for Atiku. Port Harcourt City recorded 5,562 votes for Tinubu and 7,203 for Atiku, while Tai Local Government Area recorded 9,442 votes for Tinubu and 1,506 for Atiku.
The full Rivers State presidential-election breakdown reported Tinubu winning 15 of the 23 Local Government Areas, while the PDP won only three, with the remaining LGAs won by Peter Obi of the Labour Party. The statewide figures also placed Atiku in third position in Rivers State with 88,468 votes.
The political lesson from the 2019 and 2023 elections is therefore unmistakable.
Rivers State voters are capable of changing their electoral direction dramatically when political alliances shift, when powerful grassroots structures change their allegiance and when candidates successfully build new local coalitions.
In 2019, Atiku Abubakar and the PDP dominated Rivers State, polling 473,971 votes against Buhari’s 150,710.
By 2023, the political configuration had changed completely. Tinubu’s victory in Rivers State demonstrated how powerful political structures and strategic alliances could alter voting patterns within a relatively short period.
The most striking example was Obio/Akpor.
In the reported 2019 LGA collation figures, Atiku polled 69,981 votes against Buhari’s 6,875.
In 2023, Tinubu polled 80,239 votes in Obio/Akpor, while Atiku recorded only 368.
That dramatic reversal remains one of the clearest demonstrations of the power of local political organisation in Rivers State.
The 2027 governorship election must therefore be analysed against that background.
The major ethnic blocs are likely to produce or strongly support prominent political contenders. Yet ethnic identity alone may not determine the final outcome.
Political machinery, election-day mobilisation, cross-ethnic alliances, campaign resources and the ability of candidates to convince voters that they are independent-minded may prove even more important.
High Chief Dumo Lulu-Briggs of the Nigerian Democratic Congress enters the contest at a time when many Rivers voters are searching for alternatives outside the traditional political structures that have dominated the state.
The NDC is also expected to draw political strength from the influence and commitment of its national leadership, particularly Senator Seriake Dickson, the party’s national leader and a prominent Ijaw political figure from Bayelsa State.
Dickson’s political relationships, experience and influence could provide an important foundation for the NDC’s expansion beyond its existing base. The extent to which that support can be translated into a formidable grassroots structure across all 23 Rivers State Local Government Areas will be one of the major questions of the 2027 campaign.
For Lulu-Briggs, the central challenge will be to build a coalition that goes beyond ethnic identity.
If he succeeds in penetrating Ikwerre, Ogoni, Etche, Ogba, Ekpeye and urban non-indigene communities, while consolidating support across riverine areas and making significant inroads into the Orashi political axis, he could become a major beneficiary of protest votes from Rivers people dissatisfied with the prolonged political crisis and the dominance of established godfather structures.
His political campaign may also benefit from the historical name and legacy of his late father, High Chief O.B. Lulu-Briggs, whose influence remains recognised within Rivers State’s political and business history.
Sir Gabriel Pidomson’s candidacy also introduces another significant dimension into the 2027 contest.
An Ogoni political figure with a strong educational profile, Pidomson could potentially benefit from a strong Ogoni political mobilisation if he succeeds in expanding his appeal beyond his ethnic base.
However, his perceived political leaning towards the Amaechi political camp could become both an advantage and a burden.
The memory of the 2015 presidential election remains politically sensitive in Rivers State. Former Governor Amaechi played a prominent national role in the APC campaign that defeated then President Goodluck Jonathan, an Ijaw son.
That political history continues to shape perceptions among some voters, particularly where ethnic memory intersects with contemporary political alliances.
Whether Pidomson can establish a political identity clearly independent of the baggage of past alliances will therefore be one of the important tests of his campaign.
The Rivers State House of Assembly election is equally unlikely to produce a completely predictable outcome.
The 32 Assembly seats could be shared among several political parties depending largely on the individual strength of candidates in their constituencies and the political structures operating within each Local Government Area.
Speaker Martin Amaewhule’s pursuit of the Obio/Akpor Federal Constituency seat being vacated by the current federal representative adds another major dimension to the political realignment.
Political figures associated with established grassroots movements and structures aligned with the FCT Minister are expected to face direct contests from candidates supported by the APC, PDP factions, Labour Party, NDC, ADC and other political parties and emerging alliances.
The 2027 general election offers Rivers people an opportunity to speak decisively against prolonged political instability and to determine whether political power should remain concentrated in the hands of a few influential godfathers or be diffused through a broader and more accountable democratic process.
The real question confronting Rivers voters is therefore not merely who will become the next governor.
It is whether the next governor will possess the political independence, statewide acceptance, administrative capacity and courage to govern Rivers State without becoming an instrument of remote control.
That is the real shape of things to come.
-Emeka Amaefula
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