How Opposition Parties Plan To Defeat TINUBU

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• Details Of Their New Strategy

Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election is increasingly shaping up as a contest not only between individual candidates and political parties, but also between competing strategies for how power can be won.

At the centre of the opposition’s calculations is a question that has dominated political discussions for months: Can the various opposition forces remain separate long enough to negotiate from positions of strength, and eventually rally behind one candidate capable of mounting a united challenge to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu?

That idea is now at the heart of several opposition initiatives. So, what exactly are the opposition parties trying to achieve?

The big strategy is: keep the options open? One interpretation of the developing strategy is that the Opposition does not necessarily have to settle immediately on a single presidential candidate. Instead, the different political blocs can maintain their candidates, build their structures, mobilise their supporters and negotiate with one another while the election approaches. The ultimate objective would be to determine whether a common candidate can emerge and whether the other candidates and their parties would support that candidate. This is broadly consistent with the architecture being discussed under the G-100 opposition initiative.

At its August/September meetings, the group did not demand that every party immediately withdraw its presidential candidate. Instead, it proposed a structured process involving committees and working groups to develop a framework for opposition cooperation and a roadmap towards a common presidential candidate.

This distinction is crucial. The strategy is therefore not simply: “Everybody withdraw and support one man immediately.”

Rather, it is closer to: “Let everybody build his political strength, then negotiate the most workable arrangement before the election.”

Whether that eventually produces one candidate remains unresolved. The opposition wants multiple strong blocs. Their political calculation is influenced by the experience of the 2023 presidential election. In that election, Tinubu, Atiku and Obi emerged as the three leading candidates, with each drawing significant support from different parts of the country.

The present opposition debate is partly built around the argument that if major opposition blocs again remain divided, votes could be distributed among several candidates rather than concentrated behind one challenger.

But the opposite argument also exists. Different candidates have different political constituencies, structures, personalities and geographical strengths. Asking any of them to withdraw too early could weaken their bargaining position and potentially alienate their supporters. That explains why the current negotiations are complicated. The opposition is not dealing with politicians who have no political base. It is dealing with several presidential candidates who believe they have a legitimate path to the presidency.

The G-100 initiative has attempted to move the opposition conversation beyond speeches and political declarations. At its Abuja summit, several opposition parties agreed to establish structures for cooperation. The proposed framework includes:

A Central Leadership Committee

A Publicity and Communication Committee

A Legal Committee

5 specialised working groups

The working groups were tasked with developing proposals covering:

A National Covenant for Democratic Renewal;

A Single-Term Transition Charter;

A National Reform Programme;

A Framework for Opposition Unity; and

A roadmap towards a common presidential candidate.

This is significant because the opposition is attempting to create rules before choosing the eventual political arrangement.

That could be important in preventing the coalition from becoming merely another gathering of presidential aspirants. Another proposal being discussed is a 4-year transition arrangement. Reports from the G-100 meetings indicate that some opposition actors have proposed a single-term transition programme alongside the search for a common candidate.

The thinking behind such an arrangement is to address one of the most difficult questions in Nigerian opposition politics: If several presidential aspirants agree to support one candidate, what happens to their own presidential ambitions? A transition arrangement could potentially provide a political framework for accommodating competing interests. But it remains a proposal under discussion, rather than an established political agreement.

The G-100 process has been working on a framework for addressing precisely this kind of question. Until the rules are agreed, however, every major aspirant has an incentive to argue that he or she should be the one chosen. The opposition’s plan is to keep all candidates in the race. There is also a practical political reason for allowing multiple candidates to continue campaigning.

Every candidate brings something different to the negotiating table.  Atiku has his established national political network. Obi has a distinctive political movement and demonstrated electoral support from 2023. Kwankwaso has a strong political base associated with the Kwankwasiyya movement, particularly in Kano and the wider North-West. Makinde has the advantages of incumbency in Oyo and his own political network. Other opposition candidates bring additional regional, ideological and organisational constituencies.

Consequently, the coalition may regard the various candidates as political assets rather than immediate obstacles. The challenge is ensuring that those assets can eventually be brought together rather than becoming competing camps. The 2023 election is inevitably influencing the calculations of the opposition. The 3 leading opposition/ruling-party candidates divided a large electorate among themselves.

For opposition strategists, the lesson they draw is that a fragmented field can make it harder for any single challenger to consolidate anti-incumbent votes. But there is another lesson: Simply putting opposition politicians together does not automatically produce political unity. The opposition coalition that began taking shape in 2025 and 2026 has already experienced disagreements, defections and competing ambitions.

The biggest problem is personal ambition. This may ultimately prove more difficult than ideology or party structures. Every major presidential candidate has invested political capital in his campaign. Each has supporters who believe their candidate should be the one to challenge Tinubu.  For a candidate to withdraw, he must be convinced that supporting another candidate will produce a better political outcome for his supporters and organisation than continuing independently.

Recent reports show that this remains unresolved. The G-100 process has already established working groups and a proposed roadmap for the common-candidate question. But the hardest negotiations are still ahead. The emerging strategy can be summarised in several stages:

Stage One — Maintain Separate Political Platforms

Major opposition candidates retain their parties, tickets and campaign structures.

Stage Two — Build Individual Strength

Each candidate continues campaigning, mobilising supporters and demonstrating national reach.

Stage Three — Negotiate

The candidates and parties engage through coalition structures such as the G-100 initiative.

Stage Four — Establish the Rules

The opposition determines how a common candidate would be selected and what political commitments would accompany the arrangement.

Stage Five — Attempt Consensus

The parties try to persuade the strongest contenders to accept a common presidential ticket.

Stage Six — Coordinate the Election

If agreement is reached, the parties would then have to coordinate messaging, voter mobilisation and possibly legislative and state-level arrangements.

This is the strategy being pursued in broad outline.

The unresolved issue is whether the politicians can agree on the final candidate.

There is the possibility of no final consensus. This is perhaps the most important scenario to consider.