Global oil prices fell on Friday as comments by United States President Donald Trump about postponing further attacks on Iran until after the November midterm elections eased some immediate concerns over energy supplies from the Middle East.
The market reaction followed Trump’s announcement that Washington was engaged in discussions with Tehran, raising cautious hopes that diplomatic efforts could help contain a conflict that has unsettled international energy markets and threatened major shipping routes.
Brent crude futures fell by $1.68, or 1.61 per cent, to $102.60 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude declined by $1.31, or 1.43 per cent, to $90.18. The prices were recorded at 0819 GMT on Friday, according to Reuters.
Despite the daily losses, Brent remained on course for a weekly gain after prices rose sharply earlier in the week amid concerns over the security of oil shipments.
The latest movement reflects the sensitivity of international energy markets to geopolitical developments, with traders closely monitoring negotiations between Washington and Tehran and the security of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s announcement came amid renewed diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict between the United States and Iran.
In a statement published on Thursday, the US president said Washington would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. He also said Washington was having “productive discussions” with Iran.
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The statement offered some reassurance to investors concerned that renewed military action could further threaten oil production, commercial shipping and energy infrastructure across the region.
However, the announcement does not constitute a comprehensive peace agreement, and uncertainty remains over whether the discussions will produce a lasting settlement.
The United States continues to exert economic pressure on Tehran, including sanctions targeting individuals, networks and vessels accused of transporting Iranian crude oil and petroleum products.
Investors therefore remain cautious about interpreting the latest diplomatic signals as evidence that the energy crisis is over.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINS AT THE CENTRE OF THE CRISIS
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important waterways in the global energy system, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider Indian Ocean.
Before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of global oil and petroleum shipments passed through the waterway, making its security critical to producers, shipping companies and energy-importing nations.
Any prolonged interruption to traffic through the strait could reduce the volume of oil reaching international markets, increase transportation costs and push prices higher.
Iran was reviewing Washington’s response to Tehran’s proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday. The proposed timeline depends on the conditions being negotiated between the two sides, and there is no guarantee that the waterway will reopen within that period.
If implemented, the proposal could ease concerns about global oil supplies. However, uncertainty remains over whether diplomatic efforts will lead to a lasting improvement in maritime security.
Linh Tran, an analyst at XS.com, cautioned that diplomatic optimism alone would not be sufficient to ensure a sustained recovery in energy markets.
“The prospect of easing tensions still needs to be reinforced by concrete progress in negotiations and improvements in shipping safety through the Strait of Hormuz,” Tran said.
Her assessment highlights the importance of tangible progress in negotiations and the restoration of safe passage for commercial vessels.
ANALYSTS WARN AGAINST EXPECTING A SUSTAINED PRICE DECLINE
Although oil prices retreated on Friday, analysts warned that the market remained vulnerable to further disruptions.
Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said the prospect of continued supply disruptions could limit the scope for a prolonged decline in prices.
“The escalation of atrocities in the Persian Gulf and around the Red Sea has dashed hopes that swelling oil exports from the region will be sustainable,” Varga said.
He added that “a protracted fall in oil prices in the foreseeable future seems implausible”.
His comments reflect continuing risks to commercial shipping, particularly in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
The market is also facing pressure from other supply-side developments, including disruptions caused by Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico. The extent and duration of the disruption will depend on assessments of affected facilities and how quickly operations can resume.
Meanwhile, China’s expected resumption of refined fuel exports following a temporary pause during its Golden Week holiday could provide some relief to international markets.
Friday’s price decline illustrates how closely energy markets are responding to political developments and expectations about future supplies.
Although Trump’s announcement eased some immediate concerns about a fresh military escalation, the underlying disagreements between Washington and Tehran remain unresolved. The direction of oil prices will depend partly on whether diplomatic discussions produce concrete progress and whether commercial shipping can resume safely through key regional waterways.
