THE PERMANENT INTEREST OF POLITICS: WHY POWER, NOT IDEOLOGY, DEFINES NIGERIA’S 2027 POLITICAL BATTLE- Yakubu Tafarki Alwalo Yarkasuwa Kudaru
Politics is often presented as a contest of ideologies, principles, public service and competing visions for national development. However, beneath the attractive language of political manifestos and campaign promises lies another dimension of political behaviour: the pursuit of power, influence, relevance and personal or group interests.
This argument draws on two important concepts in political science: Rational Choice Theory and Political Realism.
Rational Choice Theory examines how political actors make decisions based on their interests, incentives and anticipated benefits. Political Realism, on the other hand, places considerable emphasis on power, competition and the pursuit of political survival.
Applied to Nigeria’s political environment, these perspectives provide an interesting framework for examining the motivations of politicians, the strategies of opposition parties and the behaviour of voters as the country approaches the 2027 general elections.
My argument is that Nigerian politics cannot be understood simply through the language of ideology or public service. The struggle for political relevance and access to power remains a significant factor in the decisions of many political actors, irrespective of party affiliation.
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE POLITICIAN: THE PERMANENT INTEREST OF POWER
One recurring feature of Nigerian politics is the determination of political actors to remain relevant within the corridors of power.
For many politicians, political relevance provides access to influence, patronage, networks, appointments and opportunities to shape decisions. Consequently, retaining political influence can become an objective in itself.
This is what I describe as the Permanent Interest Theory of Political Motivation.
It is not a formally established standalone political-science theory, but a description of the recurring tendency of politicians to prioritise their political survival and interests.
Consider the cycle of power.
A politician seeks office, builds alliances, mobilises supporters and negotiates political arrangements. Once elected or appointed, the struggle to retain influence begins. Political relationships are maintained, new alliances are formed and strategic calculations are made in anticipation of another election.
This brings us to the phenomenon of political defection.
Why do politicians abandon one political party for another? Why do former political opponents suddenly become allies? Why do individuals who previously criticised a government later become enthusiastic supporters of the same political establishment?
There are different explanations, including disagreements over party leadership, ideological differences, political exclusion and personal ambition.
Nevertheless, the frequency of political defections raises legitimate questions about the strength of party ideology and the consistency of political commitments in Nigeria.
When political loyalty changes alongside the changing distribution of power, voters are entitled to ask whether politicians are committed to political principles or primarily concerned with their own political survival.
THE OPPOSITION’S STRATEGY: ACCOUNTABILITY OR THE PURSUIT OF POWER?
As the 2027 elections approach, opposition parties, including the Labour Party (LP), African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), will continue to scrutinise the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress.
Such scrutiny is an essential responsibility of opposition politics in a democracy.
However, there is another political question worth examining: are opposition parties offering Nigerians a sufficiently detailed alternative, or is their political strategy becoming disproportionately centred on the weaknesses of the incumbent administration?
In electoral politics, this is associated with the anti-incumbency advantage.
An incumbent government carries the responsibility of defending its record. Its policies, achievements, failures and unfulfilled promises become legitimate subjects of public debate.
Economic hardship, inflation, unemployment, insecurity and declining purchasing power are particularly powerful electoral issues because they directly affect people’s everyday experiences.
Opposition politicians can use these concerns to challenge the government’s credibility and mobilise public dissatisfaction.
But criticism alone does not constitute an alternative development programme.
Nigerians deserve to know what opposition parties intend to do differently, how they will finance their proposals, how they will address unemployment, what their security strategies will entail and how they intend to improve living standards.
The question should not simply be whether the opposition can identify the failures of the APC administration. It should also be whether its own policy proposals are practical, transparent and capable of delivering measurable results.
Similarly, the APC should not dismiss every criticism as political propaganda. In a democracy, uncomfortable questions are part of public accountability.
THE ELECTORATE: BETWEEN POLITICAL EMOTION AND RATIONAL DECISION
Perhaps the most important dimension of the 2027 political contest is the Nigerian electorate.
Voters are not merely spectators in the struggle for political power. They are the ultimate participants whose decisions determine who receives the mandate to govern.
Yet electoral decisions can be influenced by several factors: economic circumstances, political identity, party loyalty, ethnicity, religion, campaign promises, personal experiences and perceptions of leadership.
One danger in electoral politics is the possibility of voting primarily against an incumbent rather than carefully evaluating the alternative.
Dissatisfaction with an administration is a legitimate reason for demanding political change. However, dissatisfaction alone does not establish that an alternative government will necessarily perform better.
The electorate must therefore examine both sides of the political equation.
What has the incumbent achieved? What has it failed to achieve? What are the opposition parties proposing? Are their promises financially and institutionally realistic? What records do their candidates bring into the contest?
These are questions that should guide democratic evaluation.
The Nigerian voter must move beyond political slogans and personality-driven campaigns to demand evidence, policy clarity and measurable commitments.
2027: THE APC, THE OPPOSITION AND THE BATTLE FOR POLITICAL RELEVANCE
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, the political environment presents competing interests and competing narratives.
President Tinubu and the APC will be expected to defend their administration’s economic reforms, governance record, security policies and promises to Nigerians.
The opposition, meanwhile, will seek to persuade voters that a different political direction is necessary.
Economic performance will be central to this contest.
The International Monetary Fund’s 2026 assessment acknowledged improvements in some macroeconomic indicators while warning that rising global fuel and food prices could worsen inflationary pressures, poverty and food insecurity. Its assessment also estimated that 63 per cent of Nigerians were living below the national poverty line.
These figures illustrate the difference between macroeconomic indicators and the everyday economic experiences of citizens.
A government may point to improved revenue, foreign exchange stability or economic growth, but ordinary Nigerians will also want to know whether their purchasing power, employment opportunities and household incomes are improving.
For the APC, the challenge is to demonstrate tangible benefits from its policies rather than rely exclusively on explanations of economic reforms.
For the opposition, the challenge is to move beyond criticism and present credible, costed and implementable alternatives.
For both sides, political credibility will depend substantially on their ability to answer the questions Nigerians are asking.
THE VOTER’S DILEMMA: MUST POLITICAL CHANGE ALWAYS MEAN POLITICAL PROGRESS?
My greatest concern is the possibility that political competition could become a cycle of replacing one set of political actors with another without fundamentally improving the quality of governance.
A government disappoints citizens. Opposition parties mobilise public dissatisfaction and campaign for change. A new administration takes office, makes its own promises and eventually faces similar questions about performance, accountability and public welfare.
The cycle can repeat if the electorate does not demand more than a change of political personalities.
However, this does not mean that voters should automatically reject opposition parties or unquestioningly support incumbents. Both positions would undermine the very essence of democratic choice.
The real issue is the quality of the alternatives presented to Nigerians and the standards by which political actors are judged.
Political parties must understand that winning elections is not the same as earning public trust. Political power is a mandate, not personal property.
CONCLUSION: BEYOND THE POLITICS OF POWER
Rational Choice Theory and Political Realism offer useful ways of understanding why political actors compete, form alliances, defect, negotiate and struggle to retain influence.
But politics should not be reduced entirely to selfish ambition. Public service, ideological commitment, institutional responsibility and genuine policy differences can also influence political behaviour.
As we approach 2027, Nigerians must look beyond the noise of political campaigns.
The APC should be judged by its record. The opposition should be judged by its alternatives. Political candidates should be judged by their commitments, experience, policies and accountability.
Ultimately, the electorate must recognise that political parties are competing for its mandate, not granting citizens a favour by seeking office.
The central question of 2027 should not simply be who wants power. It should be who can demonstrate the capacity, commitment and accountability required to use that power in the public interest.
Politics may be a struggle for power, but democracy must remain a struggle for the people’s welfare.
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Yakubu Tafarki Alwalo Yarkasuwa Kudaru
