Oil, stocks fall as traders assess chances of US-Iran deal after Trump extends truce

Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul and Wellington dropped, with Shanghai flat. Tokyo, Taipei and Wellington rose.
Traders have been struggling to find direction this week after Tehran said on Friday it would allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz – which it had effectively closed since war began on February 28 — before pulling back a day later, citing the US blockade and seizure of a ship.
Donald Trump has similarly accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire by harassing vessels in the waterway, the transit passage for about one-fifth of global oil.
The developments sent crude prices swinging wildly, though they have held below $100, while equity markets have been less volatile on lingering optimism the two sides will eventually reach a deal to end the seven-week conflict that has hit the global economy.
“With markets surging amid optimism that the war is soon going to end, and the Hormuz Strait to open, markets are now more cautious,” wrote Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at FOREX.com.
“If there’s no deal, I would imagine that oil prices could climb back above $100, which would likely invite pressure on equities.”
Investors are also keeping tabs on the confirmation hearing by senators of Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to replace Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, whose term ends next month.
Warsh insisted he would not be controlled by the president as he fielded questions on his assets and central bank independence during his confirmation hearing.
The former Fed governor emphasised his commitment to “ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent.”
Trump, since his return to office last year, has severely criticised Powell for not slashing rates more aggressively, and told CNBC on Tuesday he would be disappointed if the new chair did not swiftly lower borrowing costs.
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