Ahead 2027, Nigerians Lament Opposition’s Fragmentation

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…Say Tinubu Better Off Now Than Ever

LAGOS – Barrister Olalekan Festus Ojo, a Lagos human rights lawyer, has given reasons why President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), may snatch easy victo­ry from the opposition parties despite their efforts to scuttle his second term ambition.

Barrister Ojo, Managing Partner, Plati­num & Taylor Hill LP, one of the top legal firms in the country, in an interview with Sunday Independent, stated: “President Tinubu has started the 2027 presidency race with powerful incumbency advantages: fed­eral patronage, majority state governments, control of the National Assembly, and a his­torical fact that no sitting Nigerian presi­dent since 1999, except Goodluck Jonathan, has lost re-election.

“These are structural advantages that opposition parties cannot easily overcome. The opposition’s problem is not policy, it is fragmentation.

“In 2023, the split vote across Tinubu, Ati­ku, and Peter Obi handed the APC victory with a historically low vote share. Without a unified opposition candidate in 2027, his­tory will simply repeat itself.

“Three variables matter: the economy, if Nigerians feel no relief from fuel subsidy re­moval, naira depreciation, and the cost-of-living crisis by late 2026, voter anger could be de­cisive, and the NDC may have an advantage – if it broadens its northern reach – with the intra-APC tensions subsisting, particularly among northern stakeholders who feel politi­cally marginalised.

“The APC is the strong favourite to retain the presi­dency. A competitive contest is only possible if the opposition unites behind one candidate, something it has shown little appetite for. The opposition’s greatest enemy is itself.”

Professor John Ebhomien, an All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain told Sunday Independent that with opposi­tion parties still fragmented as at mid-2026, the 2027 presiden­tial election is likely going to be in favour of the APC, unless there are changes drastically in the next 18 months.

Ebhomien, an economist, explained: “The main issue is disunity. PDP, LP, and NNPP have all suffered defections to APC, including governors and lawmakers, which weaken their structure and fundrais­ing base.

“Without a credible coali­tion or consensus candidate, the opposition risks splitting the anti-APC vote the way it did in 2023.

“That makes it easier for the ruling party to win with a plurality, especially if it leverages on incumbency and federal resources.

“However, the outcome is not guaranteed. Voter senti­ment will hinge on the econ­omy, security, and Tinubu’s performance by 2027.

“If discontent is high and a single opposition front emerges, the race could tight­en. APC’s internal primaries disputes also show the party is not immune to implosion if grievances are not managed.

“Realistically, expect APC to start as the favourite, but the margin and competitive­ness depend on whether the opposition can present one credible alternative and avoid another fractured contest.

“Finally, my appeal to Pres­ident Bola Ahmed Tinubu is to ensure that disputes from the primary elections are resolved amicably with dispatch.”

Bishop Dr. Herbert Eke­chukwu, an economist and a Christian leader, stated: “The most likely outcome, if the op­position parties fail to unite, is a resounding victory for APC in the 2027 presidential elec­tion; this time a greater mar­gin than in the 2023 election.

“Fractured opposition will cause vote split. Without uni­ty, Obi, Atiku and Kwankwaso would split the anti-APC votes across the Labour Party, PDP, NNPP, NDC and ADC, making APC to win with much mar­gin.

“APC has better structural advantage by having 32 gover­nors. The APC controls incum­bency in 32 states with their resources.

“The ADC coalition lacks sitting governors and gover­nors control state level mobil­isation. In 2023 election, there was voter apathy. Voter turn-out was 27%.

“With divided opposition, many voters may stay at home or see the race as a foregone conclusion. The FCT Council elections already showed how fragmented opposition votes consolidate APC dominance.

“APC may retain the presi­dency with 45-50% of the votes, while the opposition votes may split into 3 or 4 parts.

“Unless the opposition re­solves internal crises and field one candidate by late 2026, 2027 election risks being a walk over.”

Julius Adegunna, a media executive, stated: “From the look of things, all things be­ing equal, the failure of the opposition parties to present a formidable front against the ruling APC will pave the way for a smooth ride for President Tinubu’s return in 2027.

“That will be a result of the selfishness, disunity and egocentrism among the oppo­sition leaders.

“This also shows that none of the presidential candidates has the love or interest of Ni­gerians and Nigeria in their heart, but to show their ego.

“My advice to Nigerians is that we should all support whoever gets there, which is likely to be the incumbent.

“If there is love, unity of purpose and action, as well as patriotism among Nigerians, the country will be better, and there will be the need­ed growth and development across the land.”