From the geopolitics of oil to the geopolitics of electricity
For decades, Oil and Gas have been the primary instruments of power in the Middle East. Regional states have exercised political and economic influence largely through fossil fuel exports and control over strategic energy routes. However, technological transformation, the expansion of renewable energy and changes in the global economic structure indicate that the Middle East is gradually entering a new phase of geopolitical competition — one in which electricity and power transmission infrastructure may become among the region’s most important tools of influence.
Today, many Middle Eastern countries are rapidly investing in solar energy, wind power and smart electricity infrastructure. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and several North African states are attempting to prepare themselves for a post-oil era. Yet the geopolitical implications of this transition remain underexplored.
In the future, countries capable of producing, storing and exporting electricity will not only gain economic advantages but also emerge as influential actors in regional political dynamics.
Interconnected power grids and the architecture of regional power
In this context, cross-border electricity interconnections are acquiring strategic importance. Projects linking the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, the Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection initiative and plans to connect North Africa’s power grids with Europe are not merely economic ventures; they are becoming part of a new architecture of power in the Middle East.
Unlike oil, electricity depends on complex infrastructure and long-term interdependence. When one country contributes to the energy security of its neighbours, such dependence can evolve into a tool of political and strategic influence.
Just as gas pipelines became instruments of energy diplomacy in previous decades, electricity grids may become future mechanisms of geopolitical pressure, leverage and cooperation.
This transformation is giving rise to a new form of “electricity diplomacy” in the region — one in which energy exports are no longer solely economic transactions but increasingly components of foreign policy and national security.
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Cybersecurity and the vulnerability of energy infrastructure
Alongside these opportunities, growing dependence on electricity also creates new vulnerabilities. Cyberattacks targeting power grids, sabotage against transmission infrastructure and disruptions to smart grid systems could seriously threaten national security.
In recent years, many governments have come to recognise that the security of electricity networks is not merely a technical or economic issue but an essential component of strategic security. In the future, cyber warfare against energy infrastructure may become as significant as conventional military attacks.
For this reason, competition over energy storage technologies, batteries, artificial intelligence in grid management and cybersecurity capabilities is likely to become an important dimension of future geopolitical rivalry.
Europe, clean energy and the strategic value of the Middle East
The energy crisis following the war in Ukraine demonstrated Europe’s urgent need to diversify its energy sources. In this context, electricity generated through solar power in the Middle East and North Africa could become part of Europe’s long-term energy solution.
Consequently, electricity interconnection projects between North Africa and Europe are expanding rapidly. This development may create a new geopolitical role for regional countries — one based not solely on oil and gas exports but increasingly on electricity exports and renewable energy capacity.
Can energy cooperation replace regional rivalry?
Despite these developments, a critical question remains: can the Middle East move from “energy competition” toward “energy cooperation”?
Unlike global oil markets, interconnected electricity systems require higher levels of trust, coordination and political stability. Without regional cooperation, the development of cross-border electricity infrastructure will face significant challenges.
Political disputes, security instability and geopolitical rivalries may obstruct the formation of integrated regional power networks.
At the same time, however, electricity cooperation could help reduce tensions, increase mutual dependence and potentially contribute to a new form of regional security built around shared energy interests.
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The future of power in the Middle East
The Middle East is now approaching a new geopolitical era — one in which electricity, data and technology may become as strategically important as oil and gas. Under such conditions, the concept of power in the region will inevitably evolve.
Future influence will not belong solely to the countries with the largest oil reserves, but increasingly to those capable of managing energy networks, technological infrastructure and smart systems.
In the decades ahead, electricity transmission lines may become as strategically important as the Strait of Hormuz itself. Electricity diplomacy could emerge as one of the defining forces shaping the future order of the Middle East.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
