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…Afreximbank Says Country Can Lever Global Uncertainty For Economic Growth
LAGOS – Nigeria has been identified as one of the key drivers of Africa’s economic resurgence, with the country’s improving industrial activity, rising oil production, and growing investor confidence helping to propel the continent’s growth rate to 4.5 percent in 2025 despite mounting global economic and geopolitical challenges.
This is according to the 2026 African Trade Report released by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), which highlights how Africa’s largest economy is playing a critical role in the continent’s efforts to navigate global trade disruptions and position itself for accelerated industrialisation.
The report, titled, ‘Leveraging Geopolitics for Trade and Industrialisation in Global Africa’, paints a picture of a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, trade protectionism, supply chain disruptions, and shifting economic alliances. Yet amid these uncertainties, Nigeria emerged as one of the continent’s strongest performers alongside Egypt and South Africa.
According to Afreximbank, Africa’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated significantly from 3.4 percent in 2024 to 4.5 percent in 2025, outperforming many global regions and demonstrating remarkable resilience against external shocks.
The report attributed much of this performance to strong growth recorded by major economies, particularly Nigeria, where industrial manufacturing, information technology, and energy-related activities contributed significantly to economic expansion.
Nigeria Benefits From Reforms, Oil Output Recovery
Afreximbank noted that structural reforms undertaken by several African countries, including Nigeria, have begun yielding positive results through stronger private sector participation, increased investment inflows, and improved economic confidence.
For Nigeria, higher crude oil production levels, improved investor sentiment, and supportive fiscal measures helped strengthen economic activity during the year.
The report arrives at a time when Nigeria is implementing a series of economic reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, attracting foreign investment, and diversifying the economy away from its excessive dependence on oil revenues.
Analysts believe the country’s improving foreign exchange market stability, gradual recovery in oil production, and increased focus on industrial development are positioning it to benefit from major shifts occurring in global trade and manufacturing patterns.
Global Economy Faces Growing Headwinds
While Africa strengthened its growth trajectory, the global economy faced increasing challenges.
According to the report, global GDP expanded by 3.4 percent in 2025 but is expected to moderate to 3.1 percent in 2026 due to rising geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation, trade disputes, growing debt burdens, and declining confidence in international institutions.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which disrupted global oil and fertiliser supplies and contributed to elevated food and energy prices, remained one of the key sources of global uncertainty.
Protectionist trade measures and tariff disputes among major economies also intensified concerns about the future of global commerce.
However, Afreximbank argues that these disruptions could create significant opportunities for Nigeria and other African economies willing to reposition themselves within evolving global value chains.
Trade Shifts Offer Opportunity For Nigeria
The report highlights how changing geopolitical realities are reshaping global supply chains and trade routes.
Shipping disruptions linked to security concerns in key maritime corridors have forced many vessels travelling between Asia and Europe to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing delivery times from about 14 days to as much as 24 days.
These developments have raised logistics costs and created new pressures on international supply chains.
For Nigeria, however, the changing landscape could provide an opportunity to attract manufacturing investments, expand exports, and deepen participation in regional and global trade networks.
Afreximbank noted that countries capable of strengthening industrial capacity and improving trade competitiveness stand to gain from the ongoing reconfiguration of global production systems.
With its large domestic market, strategic location, abundant natural resources, and growing technology sector, Nigeria is viewed as one of the countries best positioned to benefit from these global shifts.
Inflation Pressures Ease
The report also provides encouraging news on inflation.
Globally, inflation declined from 5.8 percent in 2024 to 4.1 percent in 2025 due to tighter monetary policies, easing supply chain pressures, and softer energy prices.
Africa also experienced a significant reduction in inflation, with the continental average falling to 13.1 percent.
Improved food supply conditions, greater currency stability, and disciplined monetary policies helped moderate inflationary pressures across several African economies.
For Nigeria, the easing of inflationary trends across the continent offers additional support for economic recovery efforts, although domestic price pressures remain a major policy concern.
Nigeria, Africa Still Face Financing Constraints
Despite the positive growth outlook, Afreximbank warned that access to trade finance remains one of the biggest obstacles to economic expansion.
The report revealed that Africa’s trade finance gap remained around $74 billion in 2025, largely due to low foreign exchange liquidity and shrinking correspondent banking relationships.
For Nigeria, where businesses frequently cite access to affordable financing as a major challenge, the report underscores the need for deeper financial sector reforms and stronger support for exporters.
Afreximbank observed that although policy interest rates have eased in some markets, lending rates remain elevated, limiting private sector investment and trade financing opportunities.
The bank described this as evidence of weak monetary policy transmission across many African economies.
Afreximbank Expands Support For Trade
To address these challenges, Afreximbank has intensified efforts to support trade and industrial development across the continent.
The bank disclosed that it disbursed $17.5 billion in financing during 2024 and plans to significantly increase support for intra-African trade by 2026.
One of the institution’s flagship initiatives, the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), is also gaining momentum.
The platform, which now connects more than a dozen African central banks, enables cross-border payments in local currencies and reduces dependence on the US dollar and euro.
For Nigerian businesses, wider adoption of PAPSS could lower transaction costs, improve liquidity, and facilitate easier access to regional markets under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
A Strategic Moment For Nigeria
Afreximbank’s central message is that Africa—and Nigeria in particular—must take advantage of the opportunities created by global fragmentation.
The bank urged policymakers to accelerate industrialisation, strengthen regional integration, improve infrastructure, expand digital payment systems, and enhance support for local manufacturers and exporters.
It also called for stronger implementation of AfCFTA provisions, greater capitalisation of African development finance institutions, and reforms to the global financial system.
For Nigeria, the report presents both a challenge and an opportunity.
As geopolitical tensions continue to reshape international trade, the country has a chance to leverage its economic size, entrepreneurial talent, and strategic importance to become a leading industrial and export hub for Africa.
The report concludes that with the right policies, stronger financial support, and sustained investment in productive sectors, Nigeria can transform global uncertainty into a powerful catalyst for economic diversification, industrial growth, and long-term prosperity.
