TOKYO/COPENHAGEN: Global shipping companies are taking a wait-and-see approach to the Strait of Hormuz despite a U.S.-Iran agreement aimed at reopening the critical waterway, with industry leaders saying confidence will take time to rebuild and navigation will resume only when safety concerns are fully addressed.
The cautious response came after U.S. and Iranian officials agreed on a framework to reopen the strait, with a memorandum of understanding expected to be signed on Friday to formally end the conflict and restore access to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.
Oil markets reacted positively, with global crude prices falling about 5% on June 15.
U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that ships carrying oil were already beginning to move through the strait, “going along the Southern ‘Highway,’ which is totally safe, secure, and pristine”.
However, vessel-tracking data showed no significant tanker traffic through the strait on Monday, apart from a single liquefied natural gas carrier. Dozens of tankers remained clustered on both sides of the waterway, according to MarineTraffic data.
“AIS data shows no wave of ships heading towards Hormuz this morning,” Jyske Bank analyst Haider Anjum said in a client note.
“The shipping companies probably want to wait until it is clear that the agreement holds, as we have already had Hormuz ‘open’ for a very short time twice before,” he added.
The conflict, which began on February 28 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies as well as products including aluminium and urea.
India’s Petronet sent the LNG tanker Disha through the strait on Monday, according to Kpler and LSEG data. The vessel had loaded cargo in Qatar and was expected to arrive at India’s Dahej terminal on June 18.
Industry groups said safety concerns remain significant, particularly regarding the possibility of mines in shipping lanes.
“The next step is for shipowners to be reassured that transiting the Strait of Hormuz is not only permitted, but also safe,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO.
Shipping executives across Europe and Asia echoed those concerns.
“The news of an agreement is clearly positive,” said Stefano Messina, head of Italian shipowners’ association Assarmatori.
“However, in recent months there have been several announcements of a halt to the conflict, or at least of a truce, and unfortunately they have never been followed by concrete action,” he added.
Japan’s Shipowners’ Association said it welcomed the agreement but wanted more clarity before resuming operations.
“Given the situation, we cannot simply say, ‘Right then, let’s go’ based on news of the agreement alone,” a spokesperson said.
Major operators including Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Maersk and Wallenius Wilhelmsen said it was too early to make operational changes, while Germany’s VDR shipowners’ association said it remained “cautiously optimistic.”
According to Kpler, about 155 tankers carrying oil and chemicals remained in the Gulf region as of June 15, compared with 201 at the end of May.
Analysts said clearing the backlog could take eight to 10 days under unrestricted navigation, but a full recovery would likely take much longer.
“It would require weeks of de-mining and normalization of insurance rates for resumption of meaningful traffic,” said David Jorbenaze, global oil market leader at ICIS.
“Returning to full pre-conflict volumes is realistically a 2027 story, and only if the agreement holds without incident and production recovers at pace,” he added.
