Iran’s war was portrayed as a catalyst for the collapse of the Islamic Republic, but months of fighting failed to topple the Iranian leadership and instead left its opponents, both inside and outside the country, in a weaker position.
At the start of the war, US President Donald Trump said the conflict would pave the way for Iranians to rise up against the authorities, after expressing support for anti-government protests that peaked in January and posed the biggest challenge to the Islamic Republic in years.
Following the outbreak of war and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes on the first day, fractured Iranian opposition groups abroad quickly sought to present themselves as an alternative to the ruling authorities.
However, the Islamic Republic emerged from the war largely intact, while opposition groups abroad became even more fragmented. Meanwhile, opposition figures inside Iran are facing a renewed wave of repression, according to experts and human rights organisations.
Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s deposed Shah, failed to establish himself as a figure capable of uniting the opposition. At the same time, prominent domestic critics, including human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, remain under pressure from the authorities.
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