Can APC Defeat Gov. ADELEKE In OSUN?

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• What City People Found Out

That is the big question many Osun people are asking, so also political observers outside Osun State. especially from the South-West. This is because from all indications, the 15th August 2026 governorship elections promises to be keenly contested. Many political analysts believe it is possible for the APC to defeat Gov. Adeleke, but it will be very, very tough, they say. It’s 50/50 right now, explained one of them.

The battle is going to be a straight one between Gov. Ademola Adeleke, who is running on the platform of Accord Party. He is seeking re-election. And there is Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, popularly called AMBO. He is the APC governorship candidate.

There is also a 3rd candidate, Dr. Najeem Salaam, the ADC governorship candidate. He is a former Osun Speaker. The PDP is not fielding a candidate. So its basically Gov. Adeleke vs AMBO.

What is the case for APC? Why is there a possibility that they can win? We can tell you. First is because of  Federal Might. Tinubu is the President. He is also the National leader of the ruling APC. The President has endorsed AMBO. He is also supporting him. So, some believe Pres. Tinubu will back him up with everything. Second is Defections. APC claims most of the strong grassroots politicians of either PDP or Accord Party have ported and moved to their party. They say Adeleke’s strongholds have shifted, but Adeleke’s camp have denied this.

The 3rd factor is the Campaign message. APC is attacking Adeleke on Education, Health, Agriculture, calling it Comedy in governance. They vow to defeat Adeleke by 10pm on election day.

The 4th factor is APC’s candidate’s profile. Oyebamiji (AMBO) is a Technocrat. He was the former Osun Finance Commissioner. APC is selling him as serious minded, as opposed to Adeleke who loves to dance.

The 5th factor is that Osun APC bigwigs are behind AMBO, like Baba Akande. Minister Adegboyega Oyetola is also his godfather. He handpicked him. Oyetola is the leader of the party in Osun and he has direct links with Pres. Tinubu.

But that is where it ends.

What is the case for Gov. Adeleke? Why is he highly favoured? We can also tell you. First, is the power of Incumbency. And also because he is popular. The Adeleke camp says an internal assessment shows he commands well over 70% public support, across Civil Servants, market women, youths, artisans and traditional rulers.

He has a mass appeal on the streets. Secondly, is his Dance and Governance Brand. Many had assumed that the fact that he  forever likes to dance at events will impact negatively on him. But no way, Osun people like it that way. They seem to like his jovial nature, dancing style and singing attitude. They like the fact that he is accessible and available-And he has an instantaneous way of dealing with issues & problems.

Thirdly, are his infrastructural development efforts, in the area of Roads & Bridges. Fourtly is the fact that PDP is absent in the race. No PDP candidate means Adeleke won’t split the anti-APC vote. He inherited the whole PDP structure, many of whom have ported to Accord party.

In all, Adeleke has many things going for him. Many of the aggrieved APC members have left to join him in Accord. Those remaining are waiting to show their anger last minute.

Where are the key battle fronts? They are Ijesaland/Osun East. The APC claims its now 70/30 in their favour. If true, that’s a big shift.

There is also the issue of Money & Federal might Vs INCUMBENCY factor. Adeleke has state government and 3 years of projects to campaign on. There is also the issue of Unity. APC needs to keep Oyebamiji’s camp united. Right now there is a lot of disaffection.

There is also the Senator Iyiola Omisore factor. Right now, APC is divided over the shoddy way he was treated at the primaries. He is still in Osun APC but he has adopted a siddon look attitude. All his supporters and loyalists have crossed to Accord. And that says a whole lot.

Like an analyst put it, the APC can defeat Adeleke but only if they turn federal power into something visible by 15th August. They argue that the APC can beat Adeleke if they can hold all the defectors and don’t fight internally but time appears to be running out.

Many Osun political analysts insist that Adeleke’s biggest advantage is the power of incumbency and popularity, while APC’s biggest weapon is Abuja.

There are those in APC who are worried that AMBO is not too visible, for someone who has a major election in a month’s time.

Many voters say they can’t feel him. They believe coming out the way Adeleke is doing will make a lot of difference, considering that before now, he wasn’t that popular like Adeleke who has been around for years and has a family name to throw up.

Why is Adeleke very popular in Osun? We can tell you. He has always been a grassroots man by nature. He is a man of the people. Osun people call it the Imole Factor (Light). They also call him The People’s Governor. It is relatable. Adeleke loves dancing and he dances and sings at public functions. Adeleke does Tiktok. He is on Whatsapp. He stops to greet people in a crowd. He attends events. He attends parties. He doesn’t forget his old friends. He is there for them, OVATION Publisher, Bashorun Dele Momodu is one of them. Sir Shina Peters is another one of them. They have remained close to him for decades. To Osun people, Adeleke is one of us, not an Abuja politician. People also commend him for being Accessible. He does town hall meetings, visits markets, and his team replies messages on social media.

That makes him the darling of Artisans, Students and Market women. There is also the fact that his people can feel him, via Governance, People can relate to that on the street. Since 2022, his government pushed things people feel directly like:

(1) Workers Welfare-Regular Salary, pensions and clearing of salary arrears. No wonder Civil Servants call him Worker’s friend.

(2) Infrastrusture like Road rehabilitation in Osogbo, Ilesa, Ede, Iwo, Imole Street Lights project in major towns.

(3) Health & Education like free medical outreaches, renovation of PHCs, payment of WAEC/NECO fees for students.

(4) Social programes like giving out palliatives during inflation and support for market women and Artisans.

Gov. Adeleke is also popular because of the Adeleke family name. His father was in politics. His late brother Senator Isiaka Adeleke (Serubawon) was also a former Governor of the state. Many see Gov. Adeleke as continuing that legacy.

There is also the advantage he enjoyed of Anti-APC sentiment in 2022 which he carried over. He defeated Oyetola/APC in 2022 and people saw it as chasing away bad governance. That victory created a wave. 3 years later many still say let him finish what he started.

There is also the advantage of PDP not fielding anyone. So, all PDP, Accord and anti-APC votes are consolidating behind Adeleke. Meanwhile APC is still trying to unite after series of defections.

Though Opposition has done everything to discredit him saying all he craves for is populism and dancing, not real development, and that all his projects are cosmetic, but on the street of Osun, the vibe is still Imole.”