US President Donald Trump is expected to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in September following their mid-May meeting in Beijing.
Trillion dollar humanoid robot market
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast China’s humanoid robot market could reach $15 billion by 2030. They also estimate the humanoid robots market to be worth $5 trillion.
“Chinese manufacturers have been scaling production and reducing costs faster than most overseas competitors,” said analyst Kangyuxiao Li at Morningstar.
“Restricting their access to the US removes an important future market and protects US developers from potential price competition,” he said. “However, it will not materially slow China’s overall humanoid development, given the size of its domestic manufacturing base and opportunities in other export markets.”
Of the around 15,000 humanoid robots shipped globally in 2025, Unitree and AGIBOT, two of China’s largest advanced robotics companies, each shipped more than 5,000, while their US counterparts like Tesla and Figure AI each shipped a few hundred or less, according to the technology research and advisory group Omdia.
When it comes to global markets, China is also targeting Europe, for example, as a key market for its advanced robots including humanoids, Omdia said.
China has pushed back and defended its technological advancements as an opportunity for the world, rather than a threat, as countries including the US raise concerns over how a “China Shock 2.0” could hurt their economies.
The latest US ban could also potentially impact collaborations between US and Chinese technology companies, said Lian Jye Su, a chief analyst at Omdia.
Nvidia, for example, in June revealed a humanoid robot reference design which uses the humanoid chassis of Chinese robot maker Unitree.
The Pentagon recently placed Unitree alongside several major Chinese technology companies on its list of firms that it said have ties to or aid the Chinese military, a claim that Beijing said it “firmly opposes.”
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