W/Bank Alert Sparks New Worries Over Nigeria’s Sticky Food Inflation

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LAGOS – The World Bank’s latest warning over mounting global food risks is raising fresh concerns for Nigeria, where food inflation remains one of the biggest challenges con­fronting households despite government efforts to increase agricultural production.

In its June Food Security Update, the World Bank cautioned that persistent glob­al supply chain disruptions, rising fertiliser prices, geopolitical tensions and the grow­ing threat of El Niño weather conditions could trigger another round of food price increases across developing economies, with West and Central Africa among the regions most at risk.

For Nigeria, analysts say the warning the country remains heavily deis particularly significant because pendent on imported agricultural inputs, including fertilisers, agro­chemicals, improved seeds, farm machinery and petroleum prod­ucts used for transportation and processing. ­

Although inflation has begun to moderate from previous highs, food prices continue to account for the largest share of household spending, while millions of Nige­rians still face food insecurity due to insecurity in farming communi­ties, climate change, high transpor­tation costs and weak agricultural infrastructure.

The World Bank noted that al­though global food supplies remain broadly adequate, supply chain disruptions continue to raise pro­duction costs across agricultural value chains.

According to the report, logis­tics bottlenecks, higher freight costs and geopolitical tensions have pushed up the prices of key farm inputs such as fertilisers and en­ergy, sustaining inflationary pres­sures across global food markets.

These developments are al­ready reflected in international commodity prices.

The International Grains Coun­cil’s (IGC) Grains and Oilseeds Index climbed 7.4 percent year-on-year to 230.6 at the end of May, sig­nalling renewed upward pressure on global grain prices.

For Nigeria, which still imports substantial quantities of wheat and relies on global commodity markets for several food products, rising international prices could translate into higher domestic food costs.

Bread, noodles, flour and other wheat-based products remain par­ticularly vulnerable to internation­al price movements.

The World Bank also projected that global production of wheat, maize and rice would decline from the record levels achieved in 2025 as farmers worldwide struggle with rising input costs, adverse weather and weaker planting incentives.

Although soybean production is expected to reach a record high, experts say the improvement may not be sufficient to offset tightening supplies of other staple crops.

Perhaps even more worrying is the climate outlook.

The World Bank estimates an 82 percent probability that El Niño conditions will develop later in 2026 and persist into early 2027.

For Nigeria, the consequences could be severe.

El Niño often disrupts rainfall patterns, leading to drought in some regions and flooding in oth­ers.

Northern Nigeria, where much of the country’s grain production takes place, could experience below-average rainfall, reducing yields of maize, sorghum and millet, while excessive rainfall in southern areas could destroy crops and worsen post-harvest losses.

The report specifically high­lighted the Sahel as one of the regions likely to experience agri­cultural stress, placing Nigeria’s northern farming belt directly within the zone of concern.

Climate experts warn that lower harvests would tighten food supplies, increase market prices and further weaken household purchasing power.

The World Bank also warned that fertiliser markets remain un­stable despite some moderation from earlier peaks.

Fertiliser prices have increased by 35 percent during the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period last year.

This poses another challenge for Nigerian farmers, many of whom already struggle to afford adequate fertiliser due to rising production costs and limited access to credit.

Higher fertiliser prices could reduce application rates, lower crop yields and diminish overall agricultural output during the next planting season.

Adding to the pressure are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which the World Bank says are disrupting fertiliser supplies and in­creasing global shipping costs.

Nigeria imports significant quantities of fertiliser raw materi­als and agricultural inputs, making the local market vulnerable to ex­ternal supply disruptions.

Higher import costs are also likely to feed into transportation expenses, especially as haulage operators continue to grapple with elevated energy prices.

The World Bank expects food and nutrition insecurity across West and Central Africa to remain acute during the lean season, when household food stocks typically de­cline before new harvests.

For Nigeria, this warning comes as millions of people, par­ticularly in the North-East and North-West, continue to face food shortages caused by insecurity, displacement, flooding and weak rural infrastructure.

Agricultural economists say the World Bank’s assessment un­derscores the need for Nigeria to accelerate investments in irriga­tion, climate-smart agriculture, lo­cal fertiliser production, improved rural roads, storage facilities and mechanised farming.

They also argue that strength­ening domestic food production and reducing dependence on im­ported agricultural inputs will be critical in insulating the country from external shocks.

With global supply chains still under pressure, fertiliser prices rising, climate risks intensifying and geopolitical tensions showing little sign of easing, experts warn that Nigeria’s battle against food inflation is far from over.

Unless proactive measures are taken to strengthen agricultural resilience and improve productiv­ity, the country could face renewed pressure on food prices, threaten­ing household welfare and slowing the broader economic recovery.