Arise Television presenter Rufai Oseni has warned that the outcome of the 2027 general elections could surprise the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), arguing that voters in Northern Nigeria may not be as supportive of President Bola Tinubu’s administration as some politicians assume.
Oseni made the remarks on Monday while analysing political developments ahead of the 2027 elections on Arise Television’s Morning Show.
He argued that the support politicians receive from people in the North should not automatically be interpreted as widespread approval of the Federal Government. According to him, financial inducements and public displays of political loyalty may not necessarily translate into votes during elections.
Oseni maintained that many people in the region were unhappy with the Tinubu administration, saying his assessment was based on his observations of public sentiment and political developments across the North.
“Do not deceive yourself, you see, politicians are the most delusional and the most optimistic people on earth,” he said.
He added that politicians who receive public support after distributing money could misread the mood of voters.
“Because you are giving tonnes of people money in the north they are shouting your name, they are saying everything is well. Elections will shock you. Do not deceive yourself.
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“The north is not happy with this administration,” Oseni said.
The presenter acknowledged that his remarks could attract criticism for generalising the views of people across the region. He said his position reflected his assessment of public sentiment rather than the findings of a single empirical study.
“I know a lot of people will come back at me and say that’s a fallacy of hasty generalisation,” he said.
Oseni also referred to public sentiment analysis as one of the factors informing his assessment of the political mood in Northern Nigeria.
Beyond voter sentiment, the broadcaster questioned whether governors who recently joined the APC following the crisis and fragmentation within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would be fully committed to the ruling party ahead of the 2027 elections.
He suggested that some of the governors might have moved to the APC because of developments within their former party rather than a longstanding preference for the ruling party.
“Will the APC be able to trust the complete commitments of the governors that came to the fold of the APC because of the disintegration of the PDP? That’s another factor,” he said.
Describing the political alignments as a “strange marriage arrangement”, Oseni questioned whether the governors would have joined the APC if their former party had not experienced internal difficulties.
“So, are they going to be able to give their full commitment and just sweep everything off like that? It’s going to be interesting,” he added.
