Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari says Nigeria’s projected population facing severe food and nutrition insecurity will fall from 34.8 million in 2026 to 33.5 million in 2027.
Kyari made this clarification on Monday after opposition voices linked the October 2026 Cadre Harmonisé assessment to President Bola Tinubu‘s possible re-election in 2027.
He said the assessment projected 33.5 million people facing severe food and nutrition insecurity between June and August 2027. The corresponding projection for the same period in 2026 was 34.8 million.
The minister rejected claims that the 2027 figure represented a prediction of what would happen if Tinubu won another term. He said the assessment contained no such political connection.
Assessment records seasonal food risks
Kyari explained that the Cadre Harmonisé is a technical assessment designed by the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) and its regional and technical partners.
Organisations supporting the exercise include the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP), FEWS NET, UNICEF and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).
He said the assessment helps governments and development partners identify food and nutrition risks early. It is not designed to predict election outcomes.
The minister also explained that the projected figures relate to a particular period. The assessment framework does not conduct a retrospective review after that period to establish whether its earlier projections were accurate.
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He identified climate change, irregular rainfall and prolonged dry spells as factors affecting food production. He also cited the Super El Niño phenomenon, which he said had disrupted weather patterns in several regions.
These conditions have affected planting seasons and crop production, particularly for farmers who depend on rainfall.
Kyari said the assessment did not attribute these challenges to the continuation of any political administration. He accused opposition voices of using the figures for political purposes.
Government lists agricultural interventions
The minister said the Federal Government was responding through increased access to fertiliser and other farm inputs, mechanisation, irrigation and dry-season farming.
Other interventions include agricultural financing, improved access to farmland, investment in storage and processing, value chain development and climate-resilient farming.
He also cited improved security in some farming areas as part of the government’s agricultural progress.
According to Kyari, farmers who previously could not reach their farmlands because of insecurity are returning to cultivation.
He specifically mentioned Marte and Guzamala in Borno State, where improved stability has allowed data collectors to conduct the Cadre Harmonisé assessment.
The minister also listed progress in fertiliser distribution and local blending, support for smallholder farmers and major mechanisation partnerships.
He said dry-season production had expanded, while agricultural financing had received support through the Bank of Agriculture.
However, Kyari admitted that the interventions would not resolve every food security challenge immediately.
He said food insecurity was a longstanding structural problem that developed over several years and existed before the current administration.
He also acknowledged the responsibility attached to his position as agriculture minister, saying the government must respond whenever an assessment identifies possible risks.
WHAT READERS SHOULD KNOW
The 33.5 million figure is a projection for June to August 2027, not a confirmed count of Nigerians already facing severe food insecurity.
It is also lower than the 34.8 million projected for the corresponding period in 2026, representing a difference of 1.3 million people.
The Cadre Harmonisé gives early warnings about possible food and nutrition insecurity.
Kyari said the government would use the assessment to guide interventions, support farmers, protect livelihoods and improve access to safe, nutritious and affordable food.
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