Worldwide smartphone deliveries are set to record a notable slump in 2026, as analysts estimate a 12.2 per cent decline compared to the previous year, amounting to nearly 152 million fewer units, driven by surging production costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions that are weakening consumers buying power.
The projected downturn marks what analysts describe as one of the steepest declines in recent years and comes as the smartphone market grapples with a worsening memory supply crunch driven by increasing demand from artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and data centres.
According to market intelligence firm Omdia, tightening supplies of DRAM and NAND memory chips have significantly increased manufacturing costs, forcing smartphone makers to pass the burden to consumers through higher retail prices.
Omdia principal analyst, Zaker Li, said, “Rising memory costs and macro headwinds are expected to impact smartphone demand unevenly across price segments.”
He added that lower-end smartphones, especially devices priced below $100, are expected to suffer the worst hit, with shipments in that segment forecast to plunge by nearly 31 per cent as vendors struggle with shrinking margins.
The report noted that entry-level and mid-range smartphones, which dominate sales in emerging markets like Nigeria and across Africa, remain the most vulnerable as vendors face production constraints and weakening purchasing power.
This development may carry considerable impact for African markets, where smartphone adoption continues to climb. In 2025, the continent experienced the best annual performance since 2021 has it recorded 84.4 million smartphone shipments, fueled by growing digital engagement and the ongoing transition away from feature phones.
However, analysts warn that rising global smartphone prices may slow this momentum, particularly in price-sensitive economies where affordability remains a major barrier to internet access.
While the low-end market is expected to contract, premium smartphone sales are projected to remain relatively stable, with high-end devices above $800 likely to grow by four per cent due to stronger brand loyalty and higher profit margins. Apple is expected to remain one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend.
Hence, the decline highlights how the race to build AI systems is beginning to create ripple effects across the broader technology supply chain, affecting everything from smartphones to personal computers.
Meanwhile, for consumers, the likely outcome may be delayed upgrades, longer device usage cycles and stronger demand for refurbished phones as buyers seek cheaper alternatives in an increasingly expensive market.
