Russia pumps up pressure on Belarus to open new front in Ukraine war, eyes anti-NATO ops. – WSJ
Russia has been pressuring its ally Belarus to open a new front against the war with Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.
Former and current Russian and European officials familiar with the matter told the WSJ that Russia has requested to use Belarusian territory to launch even more drones into Ukraine. The Kremlin has also floated using Belarus, where it notably stores tactical nuclear weapons, in operations against NATO countries in Europe.
In 2022, Russia used Belarusian territory to invade Kyiv quickly. However, after Ukrainian forces pushed back the Russian army, Moscow stopped using Belarus to launch attacks.
While situations along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border are still tense, Minsk has somewhat stayed out of the war since then.
“We have said many times that it is absolutely unacceptable for the war between Ukraine and Russia to spill over into Belarusian territory,” President Alexander Lukashenko said earlier this month, adding that his country is “very vulnerable militarily.”
Will Alexander Lukashenko double down on relations with Russia?
Several US officials have visited Belarus since Trump’s election, and have tried to sway autocratic Lukashenko away from Putin.
The Trump administration lifted some sanctions on Belarus in September, and in exchange, Lukashenko gradually released around 500 political prisoners.
But as the war drags on, Lukashenko appears to be moving back to bolstering relations with his close ally, Putin.
Moscow has been using more ground drone stations in Belarus, where about 2,000 Russian troops are stationed, and Belarus has been selling Russia oil and gas as its fuel crisis deepens, the WSJ reported.
Moscow still relies on Belarus, which has two large refineries, to process Russian oil and sell gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel back to Russia.
In the first five months of this year, rail shipments of gasoline from Belarusian refineries to Russia surged nearly 13-fold compared to the same period last year, while shipments of Belarusian diesel tripled, according to Reuters sources.
Zelensky warns Lukashenko to take down Russian ground drone stations
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he had received intelligence that Minsk and Moscow were communicating on potential plans to use Belarusian territory to attack southern Ukraine or northern Baltic states.
He gave Lukashenko a week to take down the Russian drone stations and appeared to warn that he would strike them.
“I think a week will be enough for him to do it. If he doesn’t do it, we will,” Zelesnky said in a press conference earlier this month in Kyiv.
On Wednesday, Zelensky said the stations had stopped working.
“When Lukashenko says he does not want to be involved in the war, he should be honest, at least with his own people,” Zelensky said earlier this month. “It is not only he who could be drawn into the war: his entire country could be dragged into it by Russia.”
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that French President Emmanuel Macron warned him against taking any further action in the war, according to the report.
Macron reportedly told Lukashenko that he had intelligence suggesting Belarus was going to take further action in the war, and warned him against it.
An aide to the French president confirmed the call to the WSJ, and said Macron “emphasized the risks Belarus faces if it allows itself to be drawn into Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.”
A former Russian intelligence officer briefed on operations confirmed the WSJ report, and added that Moscow’s ambassador to Minsk, Boris Gryzlov, is threatening to cut off financial lifelines.
The sources who spoke to the WSJ asserted that there are no physical indications that a Russian attack from Belarus is imminent, besides the drone stations, but the possibility is still there.
They told the WSJ that if Belarus were used for a Russian attack, it could be aimed at testing NATO defenses or more attempts at undermining support for Ukraine.
On Thursday, the Kremlin denied the WSJ report.
“Belarus isn’t participating,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Belarusian involvement in the war.
Also on Thursday, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said Minsk perceives a “blatant” attempt to drag it into the war in Ukraine, warning of growing external pressure on the country.
Khrenin did not specify who he believed was behind such efforts, but appeared to point the finger at the West.
“Efforts are underway to prolong, and even expand, the hot conflict unleashed by the West in Ukraine. Today, we are acutely aware of a blatant attempt to drag Belarus into the war,” Khrenin said in comments published by his ministry.
