Nigel Farage’s approval rating has fallen to one of its lowest recorded levels as Prime Minister Andy Burnham enjoys an early rise in public support. The figures suggest Britain’s political mood may be shifting, although voters should treat the results as a snapshot rather than a prediction of the next general election.
The latest polling comes during Burnham’s first weeks in Downing Street after he replaced Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister in July 2026.
Farage, the leader of Reform UK, has faced growing questions over his leadership, political strategy and financial affairs. His party had previously led hundreds of national voting-intention polls as Labour struggled under Starmer.
However, Burnham’s arrival has helped Labour narrow the gap, creating what commentators have described as a “Burnham bounce”.
Polling by Opinium earlier in July placed Farage’s net approval rating at minus 27, his lowest score during the current Parliament. Burnham stood at minus eight at the time, while Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch recorded minus three.
A negative net rating means more people disapprove of a political leader than approve of them. It does not necessarily show how those people would vote in a general election.
Burnham records strong start as Prime Minister
Separate polling indicated that Burnham had made a stronger initial impression than several recent prime ministers.
YouGov research reported in July found that he was the most popular new prime minister at the start of a premiership since Theresa May entered Downing Street in 2016. The finding reflects Burnham’s opening period in office, rather than an assessment of his long-term performance.
Opinium also found that Burnham held an advantage when voters were asked who would make the better prime minister.
He led Badenoch by five percentage points, with 30 per cent choosing Burnham and 25 per cent supporting the Conservative leader. Against Farage, Burnham held a larger lead of 38 per cent to 25 per cent.
The results will encourage Labour after months of declining support under Starmer. Before the leadership change, Reform UK had built a sustained national lead as voters expressed frustration over the cost of living, immigration, public services and Labour’s internal divisions.
Burnham returned to Parliament after winning the Makerfield by-election and later became Labour leader. His rise was completed after Starmer resigned and Burnham took office as Prime Minister.
New Daily Prime previously reported on Starmer’s resignation and Burnham’s path to Downing Street.
Burnham has promised a different style of government, with a stronger focus on regional power, living costs, public transport, housing and long-term economic planning.
His administration has announced measures including relief for energy customers and planned support for pubs, clubs and music venues. However, some proposals will not begin immediately and may depend on future legislation, spending decisions or the Budget.
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Farage faces pressure after period of political momentum
Farage’s falling rating marks a change from the position Reform UK enjoyed earlier in the parliamentary term.
The party gained support by criticising both Labour and the Conservatives, particularly over immigration, taxation and public spending. Farage also argued that Burnham had no direct national mandate because he became Prime Minister without a general election.
Burnham has rejected calls for an early national vote, saying Labour continues to govern under the mandate secured at the 2024 general election. Under the UK parliamentary system, a governing party may replace its leader and prime minister without automatically triggering an election.
Farage has also faced scrutiny over reports concerning political donations and gifts. The Electoral Commission has been urged to examine whether relevant rules were followed, but calls for an investigation are not the same as a finding that the law was broken.
New Daily Prime has previously reported on Farage’s policy positions, including his proposal to allow Reform-led councils to oppose migrant accommodation and his decision to retreat from an earlier £90 billion tax-cut pledge.
His decline in approval does not mean Reform UK’s support has disappeared. National polling averages continued to place Reform among the country’s leading parties in July, with Labour improving after Burnham’s arrival.
Approval ratings and voting intention measure different things. A voter may dislike a party leader but still support that person’s party, while another may view a leader positively without intending to vote for them.
Labour’s “Burnham bounce” faces major tests
Burnham’s immediate popularity gives Labour an opportunity to rebuild support, but early political boosts often fade.
New leaders usually receive more media attention and may initially benefit because voters have not yet formed settled views about them. Their ratings can change quickly once they face difficult decisions on taxation, spending, immigration and public services.
The Prime Minister has already faced scrutiny over his use of a government aircraft for a short journey from Glasgow to Manchester. There is no evidence that the flight breached ministerial rules, but the row raised questions about public spending and Burnham’s promise to offer a different form of leadership.
The Government is also under pressure to explain how its spending commitments will be funded. Opposition parties have warned that some plans could require higher taxes or borrowing, while Labour maintains that its programme is intended to support households and economic growth.
For now, the polling shows that Burnham has begun his premiership with greater public goodwill than his predecessor enjoyed during his final months in office. It also suggests Farage’s position is less secure than it appeared earlier in the year.
Whether that change lasts will depend on Burnham’s record in government, Farage’s response and the ability of both leaders to turn public attention into votes.
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