0
As Somalia’s federal government confronts mounting security and political challenges, the growing presence of foreign military activity inside the country is raising questions about the future balance of power in the Horn of Africa and whether Somalia could become the next arena for regional rivalry.
These developments come amid a complex domestic landscape. The federal government continues to face criticism from opposition political forces, which accuse it of failing to tackle corruption and strengthen state institutions. Mogadishu has also witnessed security tensions and protests in recent months linked to political disputes, reflecting the continued fragility of the country’s internal environment despite sustained international and regional support.
Against this backdrop, a Saudi military delegation visited two government training camps in the Guri El area of Galgadud Region on June 29, 2026, as part of a Riyadh-funded program to train more than 5,000 Somali soldiers, including approximately 2,000 recruits from the northeastern region. The program is being conducted by foreign military instructors from Romania, Ukraine, South Africa, and Colombia.
Analysts argue that expanding military assistance programs in a politically divided environment could transform security institutions into an arena for regional competition rather than an instrument for building a stable state, particularly given the persistence of internal divisions and the government’s limited ability to exercise balanced authority across the country’s regions.
Some observers warn that the Horn of Africa is now witnessing an increasingly intense race for political and military influence, driven by the region’s strategic location overlooking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and controlling one of the world’s most vital maritime trade routes. Against this backdrop, they fear that external competition could become an additional factor deepening internal divisions rather than helping to contain them.
Observers also draw parallels with regional experiences marked by extensive external intervention, arguing that continued competition for influence within fragile states risks weakening national institutions and prolonging crises if the priority of building independent institutions trusted by all political and societal stakeholders is neglected.
Caught between the need to strengthen its security capabilities and concerns over becoming entangled in geopolitical rivalries, Somalia’s future will depend largely on its ability to foster domestic consensus and build national institutions capable of managing foreign assistance in a manner that promotes stability, rather than allowing the country to become another theater of open regional competition for influence.
