A United States-based election observation group, the International Republican Institute (IRI), has warned that insecurity and political violence could seriously weaken public trust and voter participation in Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
The group said Nigerians must be able to vote, campaign and observe the election without fear of violence or intimidation, warning that new laws and improved technology alone may not be enough where safety is not guaranteed.
The warning was issued in Abuja on Friday after an assessment by a delegation led by IRI President Dr Daniel Twining. The delegation also included former US Ambassador to South Africa Jendayi Frazer and the institute’s Africa Regional Director, Janai Cox.
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IRI said its assessment was based on meetings with more than 65 stakeholders, its observation of the off-cycle governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun, and reports from long-term analysts deployed before the delegation’s visit.
The group said insecurity and political violence were among the biggest threats to the 2027 polls.
It warned political leaders and parties against language that threatens opponents, encourages violence or presents an electoral loss as automatically unacceptable.
Twining said the institute wanted to support Nigerians in exercising their democratic rights peacefully in an election that citizens would see as inclusive, credible and legitimate.
Fear could keep voters away
IRI said confidence in the election could suffer if voters, candidates and observers believe they cannot take part safely.
It noted that Nigeria’s experience during the 2023 general election continues to shape public views of the Independent National Electoral Commission, particularly on the transmission and collation of results.
The group acknowledged electoral reforms but questioned whether the new legal framework alone could solve the confidence problem.
For 2027, it said credibility would depend on more than INEC‘s ability to organise the poll. Nigerians would also need confidence that electoral institutions act openly and that the authority of voters is respected.
The institute said laws, technology and public institutions cannot by themselves create trust in an election.
It said confidence develops when people believe they can vote safely, their choice will count and those in power cannot override the will of the electorate.
IRI also noted that Nigeria’s political direction has importance outside the country, making the 2027 election significant for Africa and the international community.
Twining said the delegation’s purpose was to identify practical steps that could improve trust in the electoral process before Nigerians go to the polls.
INEC, parties get recommendations
The group recommended that INEC conduct extensive tests of its systems and hold mock elections to identify possible problems with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the INEC Results Viewing Portal.
It also asked the commission to explain operational decisions, procedural changes and emergency arrangements through clear and reliable channels.
On election-day security, IRI said INEC and security agencies should protect voters, candidates, party agents, observer groups, election materials and polling facilities without blocking lawful access.
It also recommended protection for ballot secrecy and tighter security around the transportation of election results to collation centres.
Political parties were asked to hold their officials, agents and supporters responsible for vote buying and other forms of voter inducement.
IRI said party leaders at national and state levels should set clear rules for their members and ensure those rules are enforced down to local and polling-unit levels.
The group also backed sanctions, fines and prosecution for electoral offences.
It said visible enforcement against violence and other offences could show that unlawful conduct would not be tolerated.
Parties should also train their agents on lawful behaviour, ballot secrecy and result verification, while taking responsibility for violations committed by their representatives on election day, the institute said.
The group further asked INEC to improve access to polling units for persons with disabilities.
It also recommended changes to the voting arrangement for internally displaced persons using lessons from the 2023 election.
Political parties and candidates were warned against spreading false information, circulating manipulated electoral materials or using artificial intelligence to impersonate people in ways that could damage trust or raise tension.
For IRI, the central challenge before 2027 is whether Nigerians can take part in the election with confidence and without fear.
The institute said improvements in election law and technology would have limited value if violence or intimidation prevents voters, candidates and observers from participating freely.
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