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LAGOS – The soaring cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice has become one of the clearest indicators of Nigeria’s worsening costof- living crisis, with prices rising by an extraordinary 624 percent over the past decade.
According to the SBM Jollof Index for the second quarter of 2026, the sharp increase reflects the combined impact of persistent inflation, climate change, supply chain disruptions and structural weaknesses in the country’s food system.
Since its launch in 2015, the SBM Jollof Index has tracked the monthly cost of cooking a pot of jollof rice for a family of five across 13 Nigerian markets and two cities in Ghana. More than a food price survey, it has become a practical measure of how economic pressures affect ordinary households.
For the latest report, SBM Intelligence rebased the index to reflect current cooking realities. The revised basket includes rice, tomatoes, peppers, onions, vegetable oil, tomato paste, seasoning, beef and chicken, replacing turkey after researchers found that many households, particularly in Calabar, now purchase smaller portions of protein due to rising prices.
The findings reveal that food inflation remains severe despite signs of moderation in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate. Every geopolitical zone has recorded food price increases of at least 428 percent since 2016.
The South-West recorded the highest increase at 708 percent, followed by the North-Central at 567 percent. On a year-on-year basis, the national average cost of preparing a pot of jollof rose by 14.6 percent to N29,578 in June 2026.
Regional differences remain striking. Trade Fair Market in Lagos recorded a 49.6 percent annual increase, Calabar rose by 36.3 percent, while Port Harcourt posted an 18.2 percent increase.
Perhaps more revealing is the widening gap of N14,700 between Nigeria’s cheapest and most expensive markets, highlighting growing inefficiencies in the country’s food distribution network.
Rather than a single nationwide inflation story, the report suggests Nigeria is facing multiple localised food crises driven by poor infrastructure, insecurity, logistics challenges and climate-related disruptions. One of the biggest concerns is the growing impact of extreme weather on food production.
Heavy rains have flooded roads, destroyed farms and delayed harvests across several states, significantly reducing supplies of tomatoes, peppers and other perishable crops.
In Bauchi, tomato prices reportedly surged by more than 200 percent in some markets following flooding and transportation disruptions. These increases have far-reaching consequences because tomatoes, peppers and onions are essential ingredients in most Nigerian meals.
The report also identifies protein as the biggest contributor to rising jollof costs. Beef and chicken prices continue to climb due to higher livestock feed costs, transportation expenses, insecurity and broader inflationary pressures.
For many households, buying less meat has become an unavoidable coping strategy, raising concerns about nutrition, particularly among low-income families.
The findings expose long-standing structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s agricultural sector.
Although efforts to increase local food production have yielded some gains, farmers still contend with poor rural roads, inadequate storage facilities, post-harvest losses and insecurity, all of which raise production and transportation costs.
Climate change is compounding these problems by making farming increasingly unpredictable and disrupting harvest cycles. Analysts argue that boosting agricultural output alone will not solve the affordability challenge.
They say investments in irrigation, rural infrastructure, storage facilities, transport networks and climate-resilient farming are essential to stabilise food prices and improve food security.
The report also offers an interesting comparison with Ghana. In Accra and Kumasi, the cost of preparing jollof rice has stabilised around GHS400, supported by a relatively stable currency and easing global grain prices.
However, SBM Intelligence cautions that this stability remains fragile and could easily be reversed without continued macroeconomic discipline and investment in agricultural infrastructure. Beyond the numbers, the Jollof Index tells the story of how Nigerians are adapting to difficult economic realities.
Families are buying smaller quantities of food, substituting expensive ingredients with cheaper alternatives and reducing meal sizes to stretch limited household incomes.
These adjustments rarely feature in official economic statistics, yet they reveal the true impact of inflation on everyday life.
The report also highlights an important policy lesson. While headline inflation has begun to ease, many households have yet to experience meaningful relief because food accounts for the largest share of consumer spending.
As a result, improvements in macroeconomic indicators alone will do little to restore consumer confidence unless they translate into lower food prices and stronger purchasing power.
Ultimately, the SBM Jollof Index reminds policymakers that economic recovery must be measured not only by GDP growth, exchange rate stability or lower inflation figures, but also by whether ordinary Nigerians can once again afford a simple family meal.
Until that happens, the humble pot of jollof rice will remain one of the country’s most powerful indicators of the real state of the economy and the daily struggles of millions of people.
